Thu, Nov 3, 2022·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
New York Islanders 5, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 013 | 414 | 13 | 530 |
| STL | 110 | 012 | 112 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:17STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Torey Krug, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 0:14NYIKyle PalmieriAssists: Noah Dobson · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 5:06NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Anders Lee, Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
- P2 7:05NYIJosh BaileyGWGAssists: Mathew Barzal, Oliver Wahlstrom · Poke, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 10:18NYIAnders LeeAssists: Brock Nelson, Anthony Beauvillier · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–1
- P3 8:40STLRobert ThomasPPAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–2
- P3 18:28NYIJean-Gabriel PageauENAssists: Alexander Romanov · Backhand, 0.39 xG5–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:53NYIOliver Wahlstrom: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:58STLNiko Mikkola: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:30STLAlexey Toropchenko: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:45NYIAnders Lee: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:45STLNiko Mikkola: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:25NYINoah Dobson: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:09NYIAlexander Romanov: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Barbashev
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Lee – Nelson – Beauvillier10:42
xG 0.43–0.40 (52%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Parise – Palmieri – Pageau10:39
xG 0.29–0.54 (35%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas9:00
xG 0.19–0.47 (28%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Bailey – Barzal – Wahlstrom9:27
xG 0.54–0.84 (39%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock16:20
xG 1.07–0.79 (58%)attempts 13–14goals 2–0
- Dobson – Romanov13:35
xG 0.63–0.45 (59%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Mayfield – Aho10:55
xG 0.67–0.78 (46%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPitlick – Brown – Toropchenko3:47
xG 0.39–0.03 (93%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Buchnevich – Barbashev10:23
xG 0.86–0.67 (56%)attempts 21–11goals 1–1
- Kyrou – Thomas – Neighbours5:41
xG 0.43–0.27 (61%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Pitlick – Acciari – Brown2:05
xG 0.14–0.02 (88%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Mikkola6:25
xG 0.72–0.05 (93%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Faulk – Krug14:07
xG 0.88–0.40 (69%)attempts 19–7goals 1–1
- Bortuzzo – Leddy2:35
xG 0.16–0.09 (64%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).