Thu, Nov 3, 2022·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Dallas Stars 7, Arizona Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 412 | 114 | 210 | 736 |
| ARI | 05 | 013 | 212 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:27DALDenis GurianovAssists: Mason Marchment, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 3:54DALWyatt JohnstonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–0
- P1 11:18DALTy DellandreaGWGAssists: Colin Miller, Miro Heiskanen · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–0
- P1 18:30DALJason RobertsonAssists: Joe Pavelski, Roope Hintz · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–0
- P2 15:14DALJason RobertsonPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Roope Hintz · Tip-in, 0.09 xG5–0
- P3 0:27DALJamie BennUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG6–0
- P3 5:07ARIJuuso VälimäkiAssists: Matias Maccelli, Nick Bjugstad · Wrist, 0.07 xG6–1
- P3 9:06ARILawson CrouseAssists: Matias Maccelli · Snap, 0.16 xG6–2
- P3 15:45DALJani HakanpääAssists: Jamie Benn, Esa Lindell · Snap, 0.08 xG7–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:58ARITravis Boyd: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:59ARIChristian Fischer: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:41DALTyler Seguin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:21ARIJack McBain: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:32ARIShayne Gostisbehere: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against McBain
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Dellandrea – Johnston8:50
xG 0.57–0.33 (64%)attempts 9–8goals 3–1
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson9:57
xG 0.48–0.40 (55%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Seguin – Gurianov – Marchment11:10
xG 0.25–0.43 (37%)attempts 5–14goals 1–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Kiviranta10:13
xG 0.15–0.42 (26%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHakanpää – Lindell15:47
xG 0.86–0.20 (81%)attempts 14–12goals 4–0
- Miller – Heiskanen16:21
xG 0.56–0.93 (37%)attempts 13–21goals 1–1
- Suter – Lundkvist13:51
xG 0.36–0.92 (28%)attempts 13–20goals 1–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRitchie – Fischer – McBain4:57
xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Fischer – Hayton2:22
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Fischer – McBain5:39
xG 0.14–0.06 (68%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli12:46
xG 0.45–0.42 (52%)attempts 13–12goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Mayo2:43
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Stecher13:01
xG 0.34–0.17 (67%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Välimäki – Moser9:39
xG 0.44–0.28 (61%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).