Sat, Nov 5, 2022·Capital One Arena, Washington
Arizona Coyotes 3, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 010 | 06 | 310 | 326 |
| WSH | 016 | 17 | 113 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:55WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk, Anthony Mantha · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P3 3:23WSHAnthony ManthaUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–2
- P3 6:33ARIJoshua BrownAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Jack McBain · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P3 9:45ARINick RitchieAssists: Travis Boyd, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 19:24ARINick RitchieGWGAssists: Barrett Hayton, Clayton Keller · Backhand, 0.17 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:30ARIJuuso Välimäki: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:02ARIJoshua Brown: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:02ARIMatias Maccelli: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:07WSHMartin Fehérváry: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:48WSHNic Dowd: Holding2 min
- P3 6:33WSHAlex Ovechkin: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBoyd – Ritchie – Keller2:45
xG 0.09–0.01 (87%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Keller – Hayton – Guenther5:11
xG 0.22–0.15 (59%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Ritchie – Fischer – McBain7:18
xG 0.39–0.50 (44%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli9:58
xG 0.21–0.33 (39%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVälimäki – Moser12:01
xG 0.56–0.16 (77%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Brown11:50
xG 0.51–0.43 (54%)attempts 10–12goals 2–0
- Nemeth – Mayo2:00
xG 0.14–0.22 (39%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Hathaway – Protas8:57
xG 0.46–0.01 (98%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Johansson – Milano – Strome7:54
xG 0.45–0.34 (57%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Eller – Mantha – McMichael8:48
xG 0.30–0.36 (45%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Sheary13:36
xG 0.67–0.75 (47%)attempts 19–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestIrwin – Fehérváry3:30
xG 0.47–0.02 (96%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Gustafsson – van Riemsdyk5:57
xG 0.28–0.08 (78%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Irwin – Gustafsson3:43
xG 0.32–0.15 (69%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).