Sat, Nov 5, 2022·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Seattle Kraken 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 010 | 19 | 29 | 328 |
| PIT | 013 | 115 | 19 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:24PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Jake Guentzel, Kris Letang · Slap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 7:48SEAVince DunnAssists: Yanni Gourde · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 7:48SEAYanni GourdeAssists: Brandon Tanev, Morgan Geekie · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 9:51PITJake GuentzelAssists: Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P3 16:21SEABrandon TanevGWGAssists: Yanni Gourde, Morgan Geekie · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:36SEAShane Wright: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:22SEAJordan Eberle: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:28PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:09SEAYanni Gourde: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:08PITMarcus Pettersson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:43PITSidney Crosby: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Beniers
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Tanev – Geekie2:44
xG 0.35–0.17 (67%)attempts 5–6goals 2–0
- Gourde – Tanev – Wright5:36
xG 0.13–0.08 (62%)attempts 3–9goals 1–0
- Bjorkstrand – Burakovsky – Wennberg9:41
xG 0.42–0.44 (49%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Eberle – Schwartz – Beniers11:52
xG 0.23–0.40 (36%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Oleksiak2:19
xG 0.17–0.01 (92%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Soucy – Borgen14:09
xG 0.41–0.60 (40%)attempts 11–22goals 0–0
- Larsson – Dunn13:31
xG 0.62–0.83 (43%)attempts 10–18goals 2–2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Guentzel9:28
xG 1.00–0.32 (76%)attempts 20–7goals 2–1
- McGinn – Kapanen – Poehling5:27
xG 0.31–0.12 (72%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Malkin – Zucker – Rakell6:33
xG 0.39–0.28 (58%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Heinen – Poulin – O'Connor3:42
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Pettersson13:14
xG 0.91–0.38 (70%)attempts 23–13goals 0–1
- Letang – Dumoulin11:50
xG 0.88–0.53 (62%)attempts 15–7goals 2–1
- Letang – Pettersson2:10
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).