Sat, Nov 5, 2022·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Nashville Predators 4, Vancouver Canucks 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 03 | 19 | 215 | 03 | 1 | 430 |
| VAN | 313 | 017 | 013 | 02 | 0 | 345 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:56VANIlya MikheyevAssists: Quinn Hughes, Luke Schenn · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 3:41VANJ.T. MillerAssists: Nils Hoglander, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 17:32VANAndrei KuzmenkoPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–3
- P2 3:00NSHJordan GrossPPAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Mattias Ekholm · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 1:06NSHJordan GrossAssists: Zachary Sanford, Mark Jankowski · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 2:41NSHNino NiederreiterAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Dante Fabbro · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. VAN Elias Pettersson stopped
- 2. NSH Mikael Granlund stopped
- 3. VAN J.T. Miller stopped
- 4. NSH Matt Duchene scored
Penalties (14)
- P1 6:08VANSheldon Dries: Interference2 min
- P1 13:07NSHTanner Jeannot: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 13:07VANRiley Stillman: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:43VANDakota Joshua: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:39NSHCole Smith: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:17VANTyler Myers: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:35VANTyler Myers: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 1:35VANTyler Myers: Instigator2 min
- P2 1:35NSHTanner Jeannot: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:35VANTyler Myers: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 3:29NSHMark Jankowski: Interference2 min
- P2 8:13NSHMichael McCarron: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:56NSHYakov Trenin: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:04VANConor Garland: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Dries
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Niederreiter – Forsberg4:39
xG 0.93–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 1–0
- Jankowski – McCarron – Smith4:28
xG 0.19–0.01 (93%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Johansen – Niederreiter – Sanford4:20
xG 0.12–0.13 (48%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Sanford – Jeannot2:14
xG 0.07–0.15 (33%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Fabbro11:37
xG 0.81–0.70 (54%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Lauzon12:55
xG 0.33–0.33 (50%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Josi – Gross11:58
xG 0.66–0.76 (46%)attempts 15–16goals 1–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Horvat – Hoglander10:26
xG 0.53–0.26 (67%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Pearson – Garland – Dries8:30
xG 0.54–0.60 (48%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Pettersson – Mikheyev – Kuzmenko9:48
xG 0.21–0.38 (35%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Joshua – Studnicka – Aman7:12
xG 0.25–0.54 (31%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Ekman-Larsson3:34
xG 0.33–0.01 (97%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Bear8:06
xG 0.36–0.21 (63%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Myers – Hughes2:20
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).