Mon, Nov 7, 2022·UBS Arena, Elmont
Calgary Flames 3, New York Islanders 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 218 | 112 | 011 | 05 | 346 |
| NYI | 14 | 08 | 219 | 11 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:16CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Connor Mackey · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 12:26NYISebastian AhoAssists: Mathew Barzal, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 16:21CGYElias LindholmAssists: Noah Hanifin, Tyler Toffoli · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 14:06CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Nikita Zadorov · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 10:08NYIAnders LeeAssists: Brock Nelson, Mathew Barzal · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 11:07NYIKyle PalmieriUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- OT 4:02NYINoah DobsonPPGWGAssists: Mathew Barzal, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Slap, 0.23 xG3–4
Penalties (2)
- P2 19:04CGYKevin Rooney: Holding2 min
- OT 3:15CGYRasmus Andersson: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Huberdeau – Lindholm11:40
xG 0.49–0.07 (88%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Lucic – Ritchie – Rooney10:48
xG 0.92–0.61 (60%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
- Kadri – Mangiapane – Dube12:26
xG 0.64–0.38 (63%)attempts 18–11goals 0–2
- Lewis – Backlund – Coleman12:53
xG 0.75–0.57 (57%)attempts 20–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson23:28
xG 1.79–1.09 (62%)attempts 33–25goals 1–2
- Weegar – Zadorov21:20
xG 0.70–0.53 (57%)attempts 24–16goals 1–0
- DeSimone – Mackey8:51
xG 0.02–0.13 (15%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Nelson – Barzal3:56
xG 0.54–0.05 (91%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- Lee – Barzal – Wahlstrom3:09
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Martin – Cizikas – Barzal2:21
xG 0.08–0.08 (47%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Bailey – Barzal – Wahlstrom5:42
xG 0.32–0.36 (48%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Pelech – Pulock18:33
xG 0.62–0.57 (52%)attempts 17–19goals 1–1
- Mayfield – Pelech2:02
xG 0.04–0.06 (39%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Aho14:17
xG 0.56–0.76 (42%)attempts 15–14goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).