Tue, Nov 8, 2022·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Arizona Coyotes 4, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 27 | 011 | 26 | 424 |
| BUF | 113 | 014 | 06 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:23ARILawson CrouseAssists: Matias Maccelli · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 14:26BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Jack Quinn · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 17:30ARIMatias MaccelliPPGWGAssists: Juuso Välimäki, Barrett Hayton · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 2:24ARILiam O'BrienAssists: J.J. Moser, Clayton Keller · Snap, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 17:50ARIClayton KellerENAssists: Liam O'Brien, Travis Boyd · Wrist, 0.54 xG4–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:49ARINick Ritchie: Interference2 min
- P1 4:36ARILawson Crouse: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:56BUFKyle Okposo: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:56ARIJack McBain: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:08ARIDysin Mayo: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 15:50BUFZemgus Girgensons: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:08BUFPeyton Krebs: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 11:40ARIMatias Maccelli: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 4:14ARILawson Crouse: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:14BUFRasmus Dahlin: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli10:04
xG 0.50–0.28 (64%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Keller – Hayton – Guenther3:47
xG 0.07–0.00 (97%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Boyd – O'Brien – Keller3:48
xG 0.03–0.00 (97%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Ritchie – Fischer – McBain7:03
xG 0.09–0.53 (14%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVälimäki – Moser12:42
xG 0.58–0.44 (57%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Gostisbehere – Brown10:15
xG 0.22–0.45 (33%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Stecher8:40
xG 0.02–0.37 (4%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOlofsson – Asplund – Mittelstadt4:27
xG 0.36–0.02 (96%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Quinn5:10
xG 0.27–0.09 (76%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Thompson – Mittelstadt – Peterka6:10
xG 0.36–0.22 (62%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson2:18
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPilut – Power2:36
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Pilut – Lyubushkin7:20
xG 0.38–0.05 (88%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Dahlin – Power4:50
xG 0.42–0.09 (82%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).