Tue, Nov 8, 2022·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
St. Louis Blues 1, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 09 | 07 | 112 | 128 |
| PHI | 018 | 39 | 28 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:11PHIWade AllisonAssists: Ivan Provorov, Joel Farabee · Deflected, 0.21 xG0–1
- P2 16:37PHITravis KonecnyGWGAssists: Owen Tippett, Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 19:57PHINoah CatesAssists: Travis Sanheim, Scott Laughton · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–3
- P3 5:22STLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 6:44PHILukas SedlakAssists: Nick Seeler, Noah Cates · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 19:21PHIOwen TippettAssists: Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:39STLBrayden Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:39PHINick Seeler: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:30STLRobert Bortuzzo: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:30PHIZack MacEwen: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:35PHIZack MacEwen: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:37STLVladimir Tarasenko: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:27PHIOwen Tippett: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Barbashev – Brown4:55
xG 0.27–0.06 (81%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Schenn – Buchnevich – Kyrou13:26
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- O'Reilly – Barbashev – Acciari2:44
xG 0.08–0.02 (83%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Saad – Thomas14:59
xG 0.82–0.79 (51%)attempts 17–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – Parayko15:20
xG 0.69–0.46 (60%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
- Leddy – Parayko4:04
xG 0.12–0.03 (81%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Parayko – Mikkola3:43
xG 0.26–0.17 (61%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Konecny – Tippett11:37
xG 0.80–0.27 (75%)attempts 21–7goals 2–1
- Sedlak – MacEwen – Cates11:01
xG 0.32–0.33 (49%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – Laczynski – Frost8:34
xG 0.07–0.21 (26%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Laughton – Allison – Farabee14:07
xG 0.65–0.94 (41%)attempts 13–20goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Sanheim15:48
xG 0.55–0.39 (58%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Seeler – Ristolainen13:48
xG 0.39–0.29 (57%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
- DeAngelo – Provorov18:15
xG 0.90–0.93 (49%)attempts 23–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).