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Ice Lab

Left wing · #27

Noah Cates

Philadelphia Flyers
Age
27
Shoots
Left
Height
188 cm
Weight
88 kg
Born
Stillwater, USA
Draft
2017, round 5, #137 (PHI)

Career · 2021–22 to 2026–27

Games
324
Goals
58
Points
149
TOI per game
15:52
xGF% (5v5)
52.7%
Goals above expected
−7.0

Season by season

The regular-season line for each season, with the total, by team for traded players.

2021–22PHI16549+413:152321.7%13.856.0%
2022–23PHI82132538+317:4610712.1%815.648.7%
2023–24PHI5961218−813:48787.7%08.659.9%
2024–25PHI78162137+315:5311014.5%316.252.5%
2025–26PHI82182947+2616:1513213.6%920.352.1%
2026–27PHI7000−412:1870.0%00.642.3%
Total1 team3245891149+2415:5245712.7%2165.052.7%

Form

Rolling averages smooth out single games so the trend shows.

Form, ten-game rolling

Points and individual expected goals per game (left scale), averaged over the previous ten games. Ice time is on the second chart.

Points per gameixG per gameTOI per game (minutes)
00.20.40.60.8150100150200250300
10m12m14m16m18m20m50100150200250300Game

Player card

Model-based

How 2021–22 to 2026–27 compares with everyone else at the position over the same seasons, and the players with the most similar profile.

Overall rating

2nd line

70th percentile among qualified forwards, blending scoring 40%, play-driving 40%, usage 20%.

  1. 1st line
  2. 2nd line
  3. 3rd line
  4. 4th line
  5. Extra / AHL

Scoring

3rd line
  • Goals /600.6847th pct
  • Assists /601.0665th pct
  • ixG /600.7651st pct
  • Goals above expected−7.020th pct

Play-driving

1st line
  • xGF% (5v5)52.7%82nd pct
  • CF% (5v5)49.5%57th pct
  • Relative xGF%+2.986th pct
  • Penalty diff /600.2369th pct

Usage

2nd line
  • TOI per game15:5273rd pct
  • PP time share28.5%60th pct
  • Offensive zone starts42.8%24th pct
  • Quality of competition24.8%78th pct

Percentiles among forwards with 200+ minutes at 5-on-5 and 20+ games. Ratings rank each column's average percentile among the same players and read it as a role on a depth chart (how).

Most similar players this season

  1. Alexander KerfootTOR/ARI/UTA0.85
  2. Charlie CoyleBOS/CBJ0.85
  3. Ryan McLeodEDM/BUF0.80
  4. Anthony CirelliTBL0.78
  5. Justin SourdifWSH0.77
  6. Phillip DanaultLAK0.75

Faceoffs

How often Cates wins the draw over 2021–22 to 2026–27, against whom and where, and what a win leads to. Ranked among players with 1037+ draws over the same seasons.

Win rate

43.4%

1558–2034 · #163 of 181 regulars, 10th percentile

Against an average centre

43.7%

Opponents won 50.3% of their draws; an average centre would have won 49.7% against them.

Wins above average

−226

Draws won beyond what an average centre facing the same opponents would have won.

Draws per game

11.7

3,592 draws in all.

By dot, attacking to the right

46%851 · +0.544%712 · +2.038%297 · +0.748%108 · +0.548%111 · −0.548%114 · +0.547%115 · +1.249%559 · +1.636%725 · +2.1Attacking zone →← Defending zone

Win rate at each dot; the small numbers are draws and the xG swing (×100) of winning rather than losing there.

By zone

  • Offensive zone41.8% 422–587
  • Neutral zone46.3% 602–697
  • Defensive zone41.6% 534–750

By strength

  • Even strength44.5% 1305–1629
  • Power play43.8% 121–155
  • Shorthanded34.6% 132–250

What a win leads to

Shot attempts in the next 20 seconds, for minus against, per 100 draws: +14 after a win, −15 after a loss. Each win was worth 1.4 expected goals per 100 draws more than a loss.

Most-faced opponents

Season by season

SeasonDrawsWin rateAgainst average
2021–2270.0%-1.6%
2022–23105439.5%39.7%
2023–2433044.5%44.5%
2024–25110544.6%45.3%
2025–26103045.3%45.6%
2026–276653.0%52.5%

Finishing

Model-based

Did the goals match the chances?

Goals against expected goals

Cumulative goals (solid) and individual xG (dashed) through the season. The gap is finishing: above the dashed line, the player scored more than an average shooter would from the same chances.

−7.0 goals above expected

020406050100150200250300Game

Goals above expected, everyone at the same position with 20+ games

−40−200+20+40+60+80

Speed and tracking

From the NHL's EDGE tracking system (2021–22 on): skating speed, shot speed, distance and zone time, for the selected seasons and then every tracked season, to show improvement or decline.

Tracking data (NHL EDGE)

Values from the NHL's puck and player tracking, with the NHL's own league percentile for each. Missing values mean the player wasn't tracked enough.

Tracking

  • Top skating speed32.3 km/h10th pct
  • Speed bursts over 20 mph19th pct
  • Hardest shot110.0 km/h23rd pct
  • Distance skated12 km55th pct
  • Offensive-zone time38.1%21st pct
Tracking, season by season

Each season against the other forwards that season with 20+ games. A season in progress appears once half its games are played, as provisional: season bests only grow. Bursts and distance are per 60 minutes of ice time, so seasons with fewer games still compare. Percentiles are on these rates, so they can differ from the NHL's, which are on season totals.

This playerMedian forwardMiddle half (25th–75th percentile)Hollow dot: too few games to rank, or a season in progress (*, dashed). Dotted line: no NHL games that season.

Top skating speed

36.1 km/h49th pct

▼ −0.0 km/h since 2024–25

33343536373821–2222–2323–2424–2525–262021–22: 33.6 km/h, 1st percentile (16 games, too few to rank reliably)2022–23: 35.1 km/h, 20th percentile (82 games)2023–24: 35.4 km/h, 30th percentile (59 games)2024–25: 36.1 km/h, 48th percentile (78 games)2025–26: 36.1 km/h, 49th percentile (82 games)

Bursts over 20 mph per 60

1.77th pct

▼ −0.7 since 2024–25

024681021–2222–2323–2424–2525–262021–22: 2.0, 9th percentile (16 games, too few to rank reliably)2022–23: 1.7, 10th percentile (82 games)2023–24: 2.3, 14th percentile (59 games)2024–25: 2.4, 13th percentile (78 games)2025–26: 1.7, 7th percentile (82 games)

Distance skated per 60

15.4 km45th pct

▼ −0.1 km since 2024–25

14.51515.51616.521–2222–2323–2424–2525–262021–22: 15.8 km, 63rd percentile (16 games, too few to rank reliably)2022–23: 15.2 km, 35th percentile (82 games)2023–24: 15.3 km, 35th percentile (59 games)2024–25: 15.5 km, 44th percentile (78 games)2025–26: 15.4 km, 45th percentile (82 games)

Hardest shot

132.5 km/h20th pct

▼ −11.6 km/h since 2024–25

13013514014515015521–2222–2323–2424–2525–262021–22: 133.1 km/h, 13th percentile (16 games, too few to rank reliably)2022–23: 139.0 km/h, 31st percentile (82 games)2023–24: 139.3 km/h, 37th percentile (59 games)2024–25: 144.2 km/h, 71st percentile (78 games)2025–26: 132.5 km/h, 20th percentile (82 games)

Offensive-zone time

41.8%49th pct

▲ +0.6 points since 2024–25

38%40%42%44%46%21–2222–2323–2424–2525–262021–22: 41.7%, 50th percentile (16 games, too few to rank reliably)2022–23: 41.0%, 39th percentile (82 games)2023–24: 43.7%, 74th percentile (59 games)2024–25: 41.2%, 40th percentile (78 games)2025–26: 41.8%, 49th percentile (82 games)