Tue, Nov 8, 2022·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 28 | 05 | 16 | 11 | 420 |
| TOR | 17 | 215 | 09 | 00 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:45VGKNicolas RoyAssists: William Carrier · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P1 5:05TORTimothy LiljegrenAssists: David Kampf, Zachary Aston-Reese · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 17:55VGKJack EichelAssists: Mark Stone, Chandler Stephenson · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 13:50TORMitch MarnerAssists: Auston Matthews, Rasmus Sandin · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 16:56TORTimothy LiljegrenAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Slap, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 11:43VGKReilly SmithSHAssists: William Karlsson, Brayden McNabb · Snap, 0.14 xG3–3
- OT 0:23VGKReilly SmithGWGAssists: Shea Theodore, William Karlsson · Deflected, 0.17 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 6:32VGKPhil Kessel: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 11:06TORMichael Bunting: Interference2 min
- P3 4:36TORMitch Marner: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:22VGKMichael Amadio: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kampf won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStone – Stephenson – Eichel12:56
xG 0.64–0.35 (64%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault10:24
xG 0.45–0.42 (52%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Carrier – Kolesar – Roy8:58
xG 0.73–0.79 (48%)attempts 5–12goals 1–1
- Kessel – Amadio – Howden6:17
xG 0.04–0.34 (11%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore15:51
xG 1.22–0.72 (63%)attempts 19–13goals 1–1
- Theodore – Hague2:25
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Martinez – Pietrangelo15:02
xG 0.46–0.67 (41%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Nylander – Robertson7:52
xG 0.86–0.37 (70%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Marner – Matthews13:32
xG 0.88–0.96 (48%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- Malgin – Aston-Reese – Kampf7:01
xG 0.05–0.15 (24%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Bunting – Engvall4:43
xG 0.11–0.36 (24%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Sandin11:34
xG 0.54–0.36 (60%)attempts 15–5goals 1–1
- Rielly – Liljegren15:34
xG 1.00–0.99 (50%)attempts 16–12goals 2–1
- Brodie – Holl15:50
xG 0.22–0.81 (21%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).