Tue, Nov 8, 2022·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Edmonton Oilers 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 17 | 212 | 010 | 329 |
| TBL | 116 | 06 | 115 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:45EDMWarren FoegeleSHAssists: Ryan McLeod · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 9:53TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 2:09EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 4:07EDMLeon DraisaitlPPGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–1
- P3 0:49TBLAlex KillornAssists: Nick Perbix, Brayden Point · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:46EDMTyson Barrie: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P1 10:16EDMConnor McDavid: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:20TBLMikhail Sergachev: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 3:58TBLNikita Kucherov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:20EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:06EDMWarren Foegele: Boarding2 min
- P2 14:55EDMDerek Ryan: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:45TBLSteven Stamkos: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 3:40TBLPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Puljujarvi12:06
xG 0.71–0.33 (69%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Foegele – Yamamoto – McLeod6:27
xG 0.28–0.14 (67%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – Yamamoto2:23
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – Ryan3:06
xG 0.00–0.28 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Bouchard8:53
xG 0.67–0.06 (92%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Murray – Niemelainen3:07
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Ceci – Kulak11:36
xG 0.28–0.43 (39%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Stamkos – Paul7:28
xG 0.44–0.23 (65%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel10:03
xG 0.47–0.39 (55%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare7:32
xG 0.49–0.44 (53%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Colton – Koepke7:04
xG 0.04–0.33 (10%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Sergachev2:10
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Cole – Myers7:47
xG 0.37–0.20 (65%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Cernak – Sergachev2:00
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).