Thu, Nov 10, 2022·UBS Arena, Elmont
Arizona Coyotes 2, New York Islanders 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 08 | 09 | 211 | 228 |
| NYI | 010 | 03 | 011 | 024 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 1:00ARITravis BoydPPGWGAssists: Clayton Keller, J.J. Moser · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P3 19:29ARIJack McBainENAssists: Clayton Keller, Barrett Hayton · Wrist, 0.65 xG2–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:48ARIMatias Maccelli: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:16ARIJoshua Brown: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:16NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:49ARIChristian Fischer: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:59NYIBrock Nelson: Interference2 min
- P2 19:52NYIJosh Bailey: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 5:51ARITravis Boyd: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:24NYIMathew Barzal: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli9:13
xG 0.75–0.33 (69%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Ritchie – Fischer – McBain7:12
xG 0.33–0.38 (47%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Boyd – Keller – Hayton6:12
xG 0.19–0.35 (35%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
- Keller – Hayton – Guenther2:40
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Brown9:39
xG 0.78–0.15 (84%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Mayo3:09
xG 0.21–0.03 (87%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Välimäki – Moser13:34
xG 0.61–0.61 (50%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParise – Palmieri – Nelson6:46
xG 0.44–0.26 (63%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Bailey – Nelson – Beauvillier3:58
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Parise – Palmieri – Pageau4:53
xG 0.28–0.28 (49%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas4:37
xG 0.04–0.06 (37%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Mayfield – Aho11:59
xG 0.23–0.29 (44%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock13:14
xG 0.12–0.48 (21%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Dobson – Romanov15:50
xG 0.86–1.51 (36%)attempts 18–26goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).