Sat, Nov 12, 2022·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Ottawa Senators 4, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 19 | 18 | 210 | 427 |
| PHI | 117 | 013 | 08 | 138 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:05PHIKevin HayesAssists: Travis Konecny, Joel Farabee · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 14:28OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Claude Giroux, Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 19:11OTTAlex DeBrincatPPGWGAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 6:52OTTAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Derick Brassard, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 16:06OTTTim StützleENAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Claude Giroux · Backhand, 0.75 xG4–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 11:06OTTJacob Bernard-Docker: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:06PHITravis Konecny: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:52OTTMark Kastelic: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:52PHITony DeAngelo: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:39OTTClaude Giroux: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:16OTTJacob Bernard-Docker: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:02OTTMathieu Joseph: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:16PHINicolas Deslauriers: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 19:37PHIJoel Farabee: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:10PHIScott Laughton: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stützle won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Watson – Kastelic – Kelly5:52
xG 0.04–0.18 (20%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- DeBrincat – Batherson – Pinto11:09
xG 0.23–0.37 (38%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Brassard – Motte – Joseph7:44
xG 0.11–0.31 (26%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Giroux – Tkachuk – Stützle14:06
xG 0.37–0.79 (32%)attempts 14–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Chabot2:33
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Brannstrom – Bernard-Docker3:42
xG 0.00–0.06 (5%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Chabot – Sanderson2:10
xG 0.07–0.16 (30%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLaughton – Allison – Tippett3:49
xG 0.65–0.05 (93%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Hayes – Konecny – Farabee9:59
xG 0.48–0.29 (62%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Sedlak – MacEwen – Cates6:53
xG 0.15–0.04 (79%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Hayes – Konecny – Tippett2:15
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Sanheim11:26
xG 0.69–0.12 (86%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Seeler – Ristolainen11:29
xG 0.58–0.14 (81%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- DeAngelo – Provorov13:40
xG 0.45–0.19 (71%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).