Sat, Nov 12, 2022·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Boston Bruins 3, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 05 | 110 | 215 | 330 |
| BUF | 110 | 011 | 010 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:17BUFTage ThompsonSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–1
- P2 18:51BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Brad Marchand · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 12:31BOSJakub ZborilGWGAssists: Tomas Nosek · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 18:11BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:45BUFOwen Power: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:30BOSPatrice Bergeron: Holding2 min
- P2 8:54BOSCharlie McAvoy: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:04BOSCharlie McAvoy: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:43BUFIlya Lyubushkin: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 8:25BUFDylan Cozens: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:25BOSConnor Clifton: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:11BUFJack Quinn: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Mittelstadt
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak7:37
xG 0.70–0.16 (81%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Coyle – Zacha – Frederic7:25
xG 0.51–0.16 (76%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Krejci – Hall – DeBrusk6:34
xG 0.38–0.37 (51%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk3:26
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – Carlo3:53
xG 0.30–0.08 (80%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – Clifton8:21
xG 0.49–0.45 (52%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy3:32
xG 0.11–0.08 (59%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestCozens – Quinn – Peterka9:14
xG 1.03–0.03 (97%)attempts 14–3goals 0–1
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson10:03
xG 0.46–0.38 (55%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Olofsson – Mittelstadt – Krebs12:14
xG 0.74–0.70 (51%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Hinostroza – Asplund7:32
xG 0.08–0.56 (13%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPilut – Lyubushkin11:56
xG 1.37–0.28 (83%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Fitzgerald – Bryson7:49
xG 0.45–0.44 (50%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Dahlin – Power19:50
xG 0.53–1.02 (34%)attempts 20–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).