Sun, Nov 13, 2022·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Washington Capitals 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 04 | 16 | 212 | 322 |
| TBL | 49 | 09 | 217 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:23TBLMikhail SergachevAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nick Perbix · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 8:19TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Brandon Hagel · Slap, 0.15 xG0–2
- P1 11:12TBLNick PerbixAssists: Alex Killorn, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–3
- P1 16:22TBLMikhail SergachevPPGWGAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.07 xG0–4
- P2 18:04WSHConor ShearyAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Anthony Mantha · Snap, 0.12 xG1–4
- P3 13:11TBLCole KoepkeAssists: Brayden Point, Patrick Maroon · Backhand, 0.53 xG1–5
- P3 16:59WSHLars EllerAssists: Marcus Johansson, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–5
- P3 17:16TBLNick PaulENAssists: Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.60 xG2–6
- P3 17:58WSHGarnet HathawayUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–6
Penalties (14)
- P1 7:58WSHLars Eller: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 12:17TBLVictor Hedman: Interference2 min
- P1 15:12WSHGarnet Hathaway: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 0:00TBLPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00TBLPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:00WSHMatt Irwin: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:55TBLNikita Kucherov: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:32WSHAlex Ovechkin: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 19:10WSHMatt Irwin: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:10TBLPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:10TBLPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:29WSHDylan Strome: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:59TBLNikita Kucherov: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:52TBLBrandon Hagel: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Dowd – Hathaway – Protas10:12
xG 0.50–0.49 (50%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
- Eller – Mantha – McMichael4:38
xG 0.21–0.23 (47%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Johansson – Milano – Strome3:52
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Sheary6:29
xG 0.20–0.32 (39%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestIrwin – van Riemsdyk9:16
xG 0.53–0.17 (76%)attempts 7–4goals 2–0
- van Riemsdyk – Fehérváry2:09
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Jensen – Fehérváry11:53
xG 0.55–0.93 (37%)attempts 10–22goals 1–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Point – Hagel9:27
xG 0.64–0.28 (69%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Perry – Namestnikov – Colton8:22
xG 0.32–0.11 (75%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Maroon – Bellemare – Koepke7:54
xG 0.65–0.59 (52%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Killorn – Stamkos – Paul7:48
xG 0.32–0.37 (46%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Hedman13:00
xG 1.05–0.56 (65%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
- Sergachev – Perbix9:00
xG 0.35–0.23 (60%)attempts 8–3goals 2–0
- Hedman – Perbix2:56
xG 0.23–0.13 (64%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).