Tue, Nov 15, 2022·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Vancouver Canucks 5, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 215 | 312 | 05 | 532 |
| BUF | 18 | 29 | 115 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:01VANDakota JoshuaAssists: Nils Aman, William Lockwood · Snap, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 9:18VANEthan BearAssists: Bo Horvat, Conor Garland · Snap, 0.10 xG2–0
- P1 11:15BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Alex Tuch · Snap, 0.24 xG2–1
- P2 0:31VANElias PetterssonAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 3:43BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch · Snap, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 7:13VANJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–2
- P2 8:25VANBo HorvatPPGWGAssists: Brock Boeser, Elias Pettersson · Snap, 0.20 xG5–2
- P2 11:12BUFAlex TuchAssists: Owen Power, Tage Thompson · Tip-in, 0.07 xG5–3
- P3 12:02BUFCasey MittelstadtAssists: Dylan Cozens, Peyton Krebs · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:32VANBo Horvat: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:16BUFRasmus Dahlin: Holding2 min
- P2 6:20BUFIlya Lyubushkin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:32BUFRasmus Dahlin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:22VANBo Horvat: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:57VANBrock Boeser: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pettersson won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Horvat – Garland13:22
xG 0.94–0.30 (76%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Pettersson – Mikheyev – Kuzmenko9:20
xG 0.75–0.57 (57%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Joshua – Lockwood – Aman9:04
xG 0.30–0.14 (68%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Boeser – Dries – Hoglander5:43
xG 0.01–0.38 (2%)attempts 4–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Bear13:48
xG 1.08–0.21 (84%)attempts 15–9goals 2–1
- Myers – Burroughs14:24
xG 0.95–0.36 (73%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Schenn – Hughes13:46
xG 0.22–0.78 (22%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Tuch – Thompson12:50
xG 1.11–0.82 (58%)attempts 21–14goals 3–1
- Sheahan – Girgensons – Asplund5:16
xG 0.17–0.15 (54%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Mittelstadt – Krebs10:51
xG 0.17–0.44 (28%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Hinostroza – Cozens – Peterka12:47
xG 0.20–0.61 (25%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Power19:41
xG 1.10–0.85 (57%)attempts 28–19goals 3–1
- Jokiharju – Bryson7:12
xG 0.39–0.34 (54%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Power2:30
xG 0.01–0.06 (19%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).