Thu, Nov 17, 2022·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Calgary Flames 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 012 | 016 | 112 | 140 |
| TBL | 111 | 16 | 27 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:03TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 18:16TBLNikita KucherovPPGWGAssists: Steven Stamkos, Mikhail Sergachev · Snap, 0.12 xG0–2
- P3 4:53CGYNazem KadriPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Jonathan Huberdeau · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 5:03TBLPhilippe MyersAssists: Ross Colton · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–3
- P3 19:46TBLNikita KucherovENAssists: Brandon Hagel, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.78 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:00TBLMikhail Sergachev: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:46TBLBrandon Hagel: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:11CGYRasmus Andersson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 3:54TBLNikita Kucherov: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 12:50CGYNikita Zadorov: Holding2 min
- P3 15:56CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:56TBLHaydn Fleury: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Namestnikov won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLewis – Backlund – Huberdeau11:15
xG 0.43–0.18 (71%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Coleman – Ritchie – Dube9:58
xG 0.64–0.64 (50%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Lindholm – Ruzicka8:22
xG 0.33–0.38 (46%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Lucic – Kadri – Mangiapane9:53
xG 0.11–0.97 (10%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Gilbert6:46
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 0–0
- Tanev – Zadorov4:08
xG 0.36–0.21 (63%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Tanev – Weegar3:31
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Point – Hagel11:58
xG 1.57–0.38 (81%)attempts 20–12goals 0–0
- Perry – Namestnikov – Colton9:56
xG 0.51–0.36 (59%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Paul12:10
xG 0.22–0.41 (34%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Maroon – Bellemare – Koepke7:28
xG 0.00–0.33 (0%)attempts 0–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSergachev – Perbix10:39
xG 0.80–0.30 (73%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Cole – Hedman14:48
xG 1.03–0.57 (64%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Cole – Sergachev3:45
xG 0.23–0.12 (65%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).