Thu, Nov 17, 2022·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Montréal Canadiens 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 011 | 213 | 218 | 442 |
| CBJ | 211 | 09 | 49 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:28CBJCole SillingerAssists: Erik Gudbranson, Jake Christiansen · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 16:19CBJGustav NyquistAssists: Gavin Bayreuther, Egor Chinakhov · Slap, 0.18 xG0–2
- P2 13:35MTLJordan HarrisAssists: Nick Suzuki, Juraj Slafkovský · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 19:57MTLJosh AndersonPPAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Christian Dvorak · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 6:36CBJBoone JennerAssists: Kent Johnson, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 9:27MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Christian Dvorak, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 10:09CBJSean KuralyAssists: Eric Robinson · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 11:09CBJMathieu OlivierGWGAssists: Sean Kuraly · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–5
- P3 11:17MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Kirby Dach, Johnathan Kovacevic · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–5
- P3 17:47CBJSean KuralyENAssists: Erik Gudbranson, Boone Jenner · Wrist, 0.79 xG4–6
Penalties (7)
- P2 7:29MTLEvgenii Dadonov: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:15CBJMarcus Bjork: Holding2 min
- P2 16:17CBJGustav Nyquist: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:40MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:10CBJCole Sillinger: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00CBJMathieu Olivier: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:00MTLArber Xhekaj: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Anderson – Monahan11:04
xG 1.64–0.22 (88%)attempts 20–8goals 0–0
- Evans – Pezzetta – Slafkovský7:55
xG 0.28–0.11 (72%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Hoffman – Gallagher – Dvorak10:26
xG 0.31–0.40 (44%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Suzuki – Dach – Caufield14:40
xG 0.48–0.63 (43%)attempts 17–11goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Xhekaj12:15
xG 0.92–0.12 (89%)attempts 20–6goals 1–0
- Savard – Edmundson2:19
xG 0.03–0.05 (39%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Kovacevic – Harris12:11
xG 0.98–1.05 (48%)attempts 21–17goals 2–2
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Chinakhov – Sillinger10:29
xG 0.41–0.35 (53%)attempts 12–14goals 2–1
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Bemstrom10:00
xG 0.32–0.27 (54%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Johnson3:52
xG 0.12–0.09 (56%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Roslovic – Foudy – Johnson8:21
xG 0.07–0.54 (12%)attempts 3–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Bjork15:35
xG 0.78–0.54 (59%)attempts 16–17goals 2–1
- Gudbranson – Peeke2:15
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Peeke – Bayreuther11:00
xG 0.71–0.87 (45%)attempts 13–18goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).