Thu, Nov 17, 2022·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Anaheim Ducks 2, Winnipeg Jets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 112 | 011 | 18 | 231 |
| WPG | 010 | 115 | 27 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:17ANATroy TerryAssists: Cam Fowler, Sam Carrick · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 12:32WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 14:15WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Sam Gagner, Mark Scheifele · Snap, 0.20 xG1–2
- P3 14:43ANATrevor ZegrasAssists: Adam Henrique, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 19:06WPGKyle ConnorGWGAssists: Mark Scheifele, Neal Pionk · Slap, 0.24 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P2 2:43WPGCole Perfetti: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:01ANASam Carrick: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:01ANASam Carrick: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 10:01WPGBrenden Dillon: Instigator2 min
- P2 10:01WPGBrenden Dillon: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:01WPGBrenden Dillon: Misconduct10 min
- P2 11:35ANADmitry Kulikov: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:24ANAJohn Klingberg: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zegras won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSilfverberg – Jones – Lundeström9:36
xG 0.58–0.20 (74%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Carrick – Leason – McTavish5:29
xG 0.27–0.39 (41%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Vatrano – Lundeström – Regenda2:09
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Henrique – Terry – Zegras13:47
xG 0.30–0.73 (29%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Strand11:52
xG 0.55–0.38 (59%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Fowler16:28
xG 0.63–0.75 (46%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Fowler – Klingberg3:14
xG 0.09–0.44 (18%)attempts 1–7goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Scheifele – Connor14:41
xG 1.05–0.60 (64%)attempts 20–6goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Dubois – Perfetti9:48
xG 0.51–0.27 (65%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Toninato – Eyssimont – Gustafsson3:37
xG 0.33–0.16 (67%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Lowry – Maenalanen – Jonsson-Fjallby7:35
xG 0.36–0.24 (60%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMorrissey – Pionk17:48
xG 1.09–0.72 (60%)attempts 13–15goals 2–1
- Schmidt – Capobianco2:16
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Morrissey3:53
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).