Thu, Nov 17, 2022·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Arizona Coyotes 1, Vegas Golden Knights 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 07 | 09 | 110 | 126 |
| VGK | 012 | 113 | 314 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:21VGKAlex PietrangeloPPAssists: Jack Eichel, Jonathan Marchessault · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P3 0:31VGKWilliam CarrierGWGAssists: Nicolas Roy, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P3 5:53VGKMark StoneAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Chandler Stephenson · Bat, 0.17 xG0–3
- P3 11:29ARIClayton KellerAssists: J.J. Moser · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 18:56VGKReilly SmithAssists: Jonathan Marchessault · Snap, 0.18 xG1–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:27ARIPatrik Nemeth: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:37ARIDylan Guenther: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:32VGKJonathan Marchessault: Interference2 min
- P2 6:50VGKKeegan Kolesar: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:50ARILiam O'Brien: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:41ARIJ.J. Moser: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 15:49VGKPaul Cotter: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:46VGKZach Whitecloud: Interference2 min
- P3 3:17ARITravis Boyd: Interference2 min
- P3 7:09VGKBrett Howden: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P3 16:20ARINick Bjugstad: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestO'Brien – Fischer – McBain2:42
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- O'Brien – McBain – Guenther2:04
xG 0.24–0.08 (75%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Boyd – Keller – Hayton5:38
xG 0.11–0.15 (43%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Ritchie – Fischer – McBain5:21
xG 0.27–0.36 (43%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Stecher7:09
xG 0.37–0.09 (81%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Brown8:48
xG 0.40–0.28 (59%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Mayo3:14
xG 0.01–0.13 (10%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestCarrier – Kolesar – Roy6:16
xG 0.49–0.05 (90%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault6:56
xG 0.51–0.21 (71%)attempts 5–8goals 1–1
- Stone – Stephenson – Eichel12:19
xG 0.61–0.39 (61%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Carrier – Kolesar – Howden2:01
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Pietrangelo10:28
xG 0.87–0.15 (86%)attempts 11–7goals 2–1
- Pietrangelo – McNabb2:11
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- McNabb – Theodore12:03
xG 0.36–0.34 (52%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).