Sat, Nov 19, 2022·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Calgary Flames 5, Florida Panthers 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 19 | 214 | 111 | 01 | 2 | 535 |
| FLA | 09 | 214 | 29 | 03 | 1 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:13CGYAdam RuzickaPPAssists: Noah Hanifin, Nikita Zadorov · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 0:50CGYNikita ZadorovAssists: Adam Ruzicka, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 3:30FLAColin WhiteUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 10:56FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 12:58CGYAdam RuzickaAssists: Elias Lindholm · Slap, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 1:12FLAEetu LuostarinenAssists: Sam Bennett, Gustav Forsling · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 6:56CGYBlake ColemanAssists: Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–3
- P3 13:46FLAMatthew TkachukAssists: Sam Bennett, Brandon Montour · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. FLA Anton Lundell scored
- 2. CGY Nazem Kadri stopped
- 3. FLA Aleksander Barkov stopped
- 4. CGY Jonathan Huberdeau scored
- 5. FLA Matthew Tkachuk stopped
- 6. CGY Mikael Backlund stopped
- 7. FLA Sam Reinhart stopped
- 8. CGY Adam Ruzicka stopped
- 9. FLA Carter Verhaeghe stopped
- 10. CGY Rasmus Andersson scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:47CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:56FLASam Bennett: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:53FLACarter Verhaeghe: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:26CGYDennis Gilbert: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 9:26FLARyan Lomberg: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:52CGYBrett Ritchie: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:52FLARadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:52CGYBrett Ritchie: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:19FLARyan Lomberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:21CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Lindholm – Ruzicka10:15
xG 0.75–0.41 (65%)attempts 15–12goals 2–2
- Backlund – Coleman – Huberdeau12:34
xG 0.38–0.30 (55%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Kadri – Mangiapane – Dube9:42
xG 0.55–0.58 (49%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Lewis – Lucic – Ritchie4:16
xG 0.13–0.19 (40%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Zadorov4:11
xG 0.20–0.06 (76%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Weegar – Zadorov13:33
xG 0.71–0.62 (53%)attempts 22–10goals 3–2
- Tanev – Gilbert9:44
xG 0.21–0.31 (40%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBennett – Tkachuk – Luostarinen11:07
xG 0.74–0.24 (76%)attempts 11–12goals 2–1
- Reinhart – Lomberg – Lundell9:22
xG 0.17–0.16 (52%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Staal – Hornqvist – Cousins4:41
xG 0.24–0.24 (51%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – White11:57
xG 0.38–0.90 (30%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Montour13:40
xG 0.92–0.62 (60%)attempts 21–14goals 1–0
- Gudas – Mahura10:54
xG 0.39–0.30 (57%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Forsling17:56
xG 0.40–0.58 (41%)attempts 14–18goals 2–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).