Sat, Nov 19, 2022·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Detroit Red Wings 6, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 113 | 313 | 211 | 637 |
| CBJ | 012 | 110 | 06 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:58DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: David Perron, Moritz Seider · Snap, 0.26 xG1–0
- P2 0:43CBJEmil BemstromAssists: Boone Jenner, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 6:35DETFilip HronekGWGUnassisted · Slap, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 10:45DETBen ChiarotAssists: Lucas Raymond, Andrew Copp · Slap, 0.01 xG3–1
- P2 17:02DETFilip HronekAssists: Dylan Larkin, Moritz Seider · Snap, 0.09 xG4–1
- P3 5:21DETDominik KubalikPPAssists: Moritz Seider, Dylan Larkin · Slap, 0.09 xG5–1
- P3 9:04DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Andrew Copp, Lucas Raymond · Snap, 0.22 xG6–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:22DETTyler Bertuzzi: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:01CBJMathieu Olivier: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:16CBJVladislav Gavrikov: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:16DETMoritz Seider: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:37CBJSean Kuraly: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:49CBJMathieu Olivier: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P3 18:41DETJordan Oesterle: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Kubalik – Larkin10:31
xG 0.68–0.27 (72%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Copp – Bertuzzi – Raymond11:53
xG 0.45–0.26 (63%)attempts 11–10goals 2–1
- Sundqvist – Erne – Rasmussen10:48
xG 0.50–0.42 (54%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Suter – Veleno – Berggren10:14
xG 0.17–0.60 (22%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Hronek15:16
xG 0.58–0.37 (61%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Oesterle – Walman15:44
xG 0.86–0.67 (56%)attempts 11–20goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Seider17:05
xG 0.62–0.65 (49%)attempts 12–19goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Bemstrom – Chinakhov – Sillinger2:45
xG 0.09–0.05 (67%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Chinakhov – Sillinger7:17
xG 0.39–0.38 (51%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Nyquist – Gaudreau – Jenner2:12
xG 0.06–0.13 (33%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Olivier – Robinson13:39
xG 0.44–0.52 (46%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPeeke – Bayreuther13:36
xG 0.65–0.58 (53%)attempts 18–9goals 0–1
- Gudbranson – Christiansen16:51
xG 0.54–0.58 (48%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Gavrikov – Bjork14:03
xG 0.14–0.99 (13%)attempts 6–15goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).