Mon, Nov 21, 2022·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Calgary Flames 5, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 29 | 16 | 215 | 530 |
| PHI | 19 | 06 | 110 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:43CGYJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Blake Coleman · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 13:51CGYDillon DubeAssists: Blake Coleman, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P1 14:33PHITanner LaczynskiAssists: Kevin Hayes, Noah Cates · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 3:29CGYRasmus AnderssonGWGAssists: Noah Hanifin, Andrew Mangiapane · Slap, 0.01 xG3–1
- P3 8:03PHIJoel FarabeeUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 18:09CGYBlake ColemanENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.42 xG4–2
- P3 19:23CGYTrevor LewisENAssists: Chris Tanev, Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.72 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:40PHIJustin Braun: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:06PHIZack MacEwen: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:06CGYDennis Gilbert: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:31CGYNikita Zadorov: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:35CGYMilan Lucic: Interference2 min
- P3 0:18PHIKevin Hayes: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:48CGYNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:48PHITravis Sanheim: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 12:16CGYNazem Kadri: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Frost
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Mangiapane – Dube9:39
xG 0.71–0.16 (82%)attempts 12–9goals 2–1
- Backlund – Coleman – Huberdeau10:36
xG 0.46–0.01 (99%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Lewis – Lucic – Rooney8:13
xG 0.34–0.13 (72%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Lindholm – Ruzicka7:35
xG 0.12–0.25 (33%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Zadorov10:46
xG 0.81–0.05 (94%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Tanev – Gilbert8:34
xG 0.45–0.19 (70%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Tanev – Zadorov3:12
xG 0.33–0.08 (81%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestDeslauriers – Sedlak – Bellows3:57
xG 0.14–0.04 (79%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Brown – Willman – Laczynski6:02
xG 0.13–0.07 (65%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- MacEwen – Cates – Farabee2:09
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Hayes – MacEwen – Cates5:13
xG 0.13–0.15 (47%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ristolainen – Sanheim2:39
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Braun – Seeler4:12
xG 0.00–0.03 (3%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Provorov2:00
xG 0.00–0.15 (1%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).