Skip to content
Ice Lab

Mon, Nov 21, 2022·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville

Arizona Coyotes 3, Nashville Predators 4 (SO)

Away

Arizona Coyotes

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Nashville Predators

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 82% of the time.

NSH winsARI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
ARI0122619003327
NSH111013213084445

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:04NSHMikael GranlundPPAssists: Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi · Snap, 0.22 xG0–1
  2. P2 8:50ARILawson CrouseAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Matias Maccelli · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
  3. P2 15:56ARINick BjugstadAssists: Nick Ritchie, J.J. Moser · Snap, 0.24 xG2–1
  4. P3 1:03NSHRoman JosiPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, Mikael Granlund · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
  5. P3 1:31NSHMatt DucheneAssists: Colton Sissons · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–3
  6. P3 13:16ARINick BjugstadSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.12 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. NSH Mikael Granlund stopped
  2. 2. ARI Nick Schmaltz stopped
  3. 3. NSH Matt Duchene scored
  4. 4. ARI Nick Bjugstad scored
  5. 5. NSH Filip Forsberg scored
  6. 6. ARI Clayton Keller scored
  7. 7. NSH Ryan Johansen scored
  8. 8. ARI Nick Ritchie scored
  9. 9. NSH Roman Josi stopped
  10. 10. ARI Matias Maccelli stopped
  11. 11. NSH Juuso Parssinen stopped
  12. 12. ARI Travis Boyd stopped
  13. 13. NSH Cody Glass scored
  14. 14. ARI Shayne Gostisbehere stopped
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 1:33ARIBarrett Hayton: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 4:02ARIJuuso Välimäki: Interference2 min
  3. P1 6:35ARINick Schmaltz: Elbowing2 min · PPG
  4. P1 16:53ARIJoshua Brown: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 16:53NSHCole Smith: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 12:11NSHDante Fabbro: Tripping2 min
  7. P2 17:21NSHRyan Johansen: Slashing2 min
  8. P2 17:21ARIPatrik Nemeth: Holding2 min
  9. P3 0:27ARIMatias Maccelli: Tripping2 min · PPG
  10. P3 7:00ARIJakob Chychrun: Holding2 min
  11. P3 11:37ARIJuuso Välimäki: High sticking2 min
  12. P3 17:08NSHZachary Sanford: Interference2 min
  13. OT 2:10ARILawson Crouse: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ARI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NSH
49% to win51% to win
← ARI attackNSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Parssinen
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ARINSH
27Shots on goal45
2.8Expected goals5.1
46Shot attempts74
29Faceoffs won35
2Power plays7
21Penalty minutes11
34Hits24
13Blocked shots9
8Giveaways10
7Takeaways10

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Arizona Coyotes

Forward lines

  1. Ritchie – Crouse – Hayton2:06

    xG 0.10–0.06 (60%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0

  2. O'Brien – Fischer – McBain9:35

    xG 0.19–0.42 (31%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0

  3. Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli7:27

    xG 0.21–0.55 (28%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0

  4. Boyd – Schmaltz – Keller12:50

    xG 0.53–0.90 (37%)attempts 15–17goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestVälimäki – Moser6:06

    xG 0.68–0.10 (87%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0

  2. Brown – Moser4:31

    xG 0.49–0.25 (66%)attempts 5–4goals 2–0

  3. Stecher – Välimäki4:00

    xG 0.12–0.13 (48%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0

Nashville Predators

Forward lines

  1. bestDuchene – Sissons – Jeannot2:44

    xG 0.34–0.08 (81%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0

  2. Sanford – Glass – Smith2:21

    xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0

  3. Sissons – McCarron – Smith4:06

    xG 0.14–0.26 (35%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0

  4. Granlund – Forsberg – Parssinen12:39

    xG 0.85–0.98 (46%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestEkholm – Carrier10:24

    xG 0.60–0.21 (74%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0

  2. Josi – Carrier2:55

    xG 0.45–0.33 (58%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1

  3. Josi – Lauzon3:01

    xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NSH 5.1 xGARI 2.8 xG
012345P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NSHARI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 90/100 · #183 of 1312 this seasonSwing 2.47 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 26% (winner's lowest chance)
ARI 100%5050%50NSH 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +31 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 82% of the time.

NSH winsARI wins

Simulated goal difference (NSH − ARI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).