Mon, Nov 21, 2022·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Colorado Avalanche 3, Dallas Stars 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 111 | 07 | 113 | 04 | 1 | 335 |
| DAL | 011 | 18 | 15 | 00 | 0 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:10COLCale MakarPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Artturi Lehkonen · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 5:33DALJason RobertsonAssists: Ty Dellandrea · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–1
- P3 2:06COLAlex NewhookAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Andreas Englund · Bat, 0.26 xG2–1
- P3 19:34DALJason RobertsonAssists: Roope Hintz, Colin Miller · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. DAL Tyler Seguin stopped
- 2. COL Nathan MacKinnon stopped
- 3. DAL Joe Pavelski stopped
- 4. COL Mikko Rantanen scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:38COLJosh Manson: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:41DALJoel Kiviranta: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:01DALNils Lundkvist: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:35COLJosh Manson: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:35DALJamie Benn: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:12DALTy Dellandrea: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:40DALWyatt Johnston: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:19DALLuke Glendening: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:21DALMason Marchment: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:21DALMason Marchment: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCogliano – Compher – O'Connor8:01
xG 0.11–0.00 (98%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Rodrigues – Kaut – Newhook5:53
xG 0.31–0.22 (59%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Hunt – Rodrigues – Newhook2:03
xG 0.08–0.01 (85%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:07
xG 0.51–0.54 (49%)attempts 10–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Englund7:41
xG 0.48–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Johnson – Makar2:27
xG 0.38–0.04 (89%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Manson – MacDonald8:16
xG 0.31–0.04 (88%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Dellandrea – Blümel – Johnston3:57
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson11:44
xG 0.27–0.36 (43%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Marchment8:22
xG 0.01–0.14 (9%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Kiviranta7:24
xG 0.02–0.28 (7%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Lundkvist7:35
xG 0.33–0.02 (93%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Suter – Heiskanen5:21
xG 0.24–0.01 (96%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Miller – Heiskanen13:01
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).