Wed, Nov 23, 2022·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Arizona Coyotes 4, Carolina Hurricanes 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 11 | 013 | 313 | 427 |
| CAR | 014 | 010 | 012 | 036 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:06ARINick SchmaltzGWGAssists: Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P3 1:52ARILawson CrouseAssists: Dylan Guenther, J.J. Moser · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–0
- P3 9:14ARINick BjugstadAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Dylan Guenther · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–0
- P3 17:53ARILawson CrouseENAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Jakob Chychrun · Wrist, 0.76 xG4–0
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:18ARITroy Stecher: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 6:30ARIZack Kassian: Interference2 min
- P1 7:10ARILawson Crouse: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:19CARDerek Stepan: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:25ARIClayton Keller: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:01CARJordan Martinook: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:48CARAndrei Svechnikov: Interference2 min
- P3 10:47ARITroy Stecher: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:47CARStefan Noesen: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBoyd – Schmaltz – Keller9:54
xG 0.57–0.17 (77%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Kassian – Ritchie – Hayton7:44
xG 0.12–0.19 (39%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Guenther8:09
xG 0.36–0.61 (37%)attempts 5–18goals 1–0
- O'Brien – Fischer – McBain9:26
xG 0.00–0.32 (0%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Chychrun13:47
xG 0.59–0.46 (56%)attempts 12–15goals 2–0
- Nemeth – Stecher9:53
xG 0.00–0.41 (0%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Mayo – Moser11:39
xG 0.27–0.85 (24%)attempts 5–22goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestAho – Necas – Svechnikov3:34
xG 0.39–0.11 (78%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Svechnikov – Drury – Jarvis8:10
xG 0.35–0.12 (75%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook8:43
xG 0.58–0.61 (49%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Noesen – Aho – Necas6:48
xG 0.17–0.23 (44%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Chatfield11:15
xG 0.29–0.13 (70%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Burns – Slavin12:07
xG 0.58–0.59 (49%)attempts 21–8goals 0–2
- Skjei – Pesce15:24
xG 0.56–0.99 (36%)attempts 22–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).