Wed, Nov 23, 2022·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Dallas Stars 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 011 | 315 | 15 | 431 |
| DAL | 14 | 011 | 524 | 639 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:55DALJason RobertsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 4:22CHISeth JonesAssists: Patrick Kane, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 13:53CHIAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Max Domi, Caleb Jones · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 16:53CHIConnor MurphyAssists: Jonathan Toews, Jarred Tinordi · Poke, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 9:37CHIMax DomiAssists: Colin Blackwell, Jake McCabe · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–1
- P3 10:15DALJamie BennPPAssists: Roope Hintz, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 13:58DALMason MarchmentAssists: Tyler Seguin, Denis Gurianov · Snap, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 14:12DALTy DellandreaAssists: Jani Hakanpää, Jamie Benn · Tip-in, 0.05 xG4–4
- P3 18:27DALRadek FaksaGWGAssists: Colin Miller, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–5
- P3 19:51DALJason RobertsonENAssists: Jani Hakanpää · Wrist, 0.78 xG4–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:03DALJani Hakanpää: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:54DALEsa Lindell: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:38CHIJarred Tinordi: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:38DALJani Hakanpää: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:14CHIAndreas Athanasiou: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 9:50CHIMax Domi: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dickinson won the faceoff against Glendening
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Blackwell – Khaira – Dickinson10:15
xG 0.36–0.42 (46%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Lafferty – Entwistle – Johnson5:07
xG 0.08–0.22 (26%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Kane – Athanasiou – Domi11:01
xG 0.50–0.97 (34%)attempts 7–23goals 2–1
- Toews – Raddysh – Kurashev9:47
xG 0.27–1.09 (20%)attempts 4–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Jones11:25
xG 0.86–0.67 (56%)attempts 13–17goals 2–3
- Tinordi – Murphy16:05
xG 0.46–0.77 (37%)attempts 8–20goals 1–0
- Johnson – Jones15:49
xG 0.59–1.10 (35%)attempts 15–25goals 1–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSeguin – Marchment – Kiviranta8:34
xG 0.59–0.20 (75%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson13:56
xG 1.01–0.90 (53%)attempts 30–15goals 1–2
- Benn – Dellandrea – Johnston8:56
xG 0.27–0.22 (54%)attempts 3–5goals 1–2
- Glendening – Faksa – Kiviranta2:03
xG 0.01–0.05 (20%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Miller5:10
xG 0.74–0.13 (85%)attempts 12–4goals 2–0
- Miller – Heiskanen8:50
xG 0.63–0.27 (70%)attempts 15–6goals 1–1
- Suter – Lundkvist8:45
xG 0.32–0.10 (77%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).