Wed, Nov 23, 2022·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Ottawa Senators 1, Vegas Golden Knights 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 113 | 011 | 016 | 140 |
| VGK | 110 | 117 | 29 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:02VGKMark StonePPAssists: Jack Eichel, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 19:42OTTJake SandersonPPAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.00 xG1–1
- P2 16:23VGKWilliam CarrierGWGAssists: Zach Whitecloud, Nicolas Hague · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 2:39VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Alex Pietrangelo · Backhand, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 18:19VGKJack EichelENAssists: Brayden McNabb · Backhand, 0.62 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:17OTTTravis Hamonic: Holding2 min
- P1 15:26OTTArtem Zub: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 18:34VGKZach Whitecloud: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:52OTTTravis Hamonic: Interference2 min
- P2 18:05OTTTim Stützle: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:26VGKNicolas Hague: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Motte – Joseph9:16
xG 1.06–0.07 (94%)attempts 19–4goals 0–0
- Batherson – Tkachuk – Stützle13:07
xG 0.95–0.57 (62%)attempts 20–16goals 0–1
- Giroux – DeBrincat – Pinto12:36
xG 0.56–0.38 (60%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Watson – Kastelic – Kelly6:25
xG 0.20–0.26 (43%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Sanderson13:51
xG 0.92–0.24 (80%)attempts 23–11goals 0–0
- Brannstrom – Zub16:57
xG 1.11–0.61 (64%)attempts 26–11goals 0–0
- Holden – Thomson9:00
xG 0.51–0.49 (51%)attempts 13–9goals 0–2
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- Carrier – Kolesar – Howden10:23
xG 0.35–0.43 (45%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault10:23
xG 0.20–0.46 (31%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Kessel – Amadio – Cotter7:02
xG 0.09–0.71 (11%)attempts 3–16goals 0–0
- Stone – Stephenson – Eichel13:07
xG 0.35–1.19 (23%)attempts 11–21goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- McNabb – Theodore16:53
xG 0.67–0.80 (46%)attempts 19–25goals 1–0
- Martinez – Pietrangelo15:24
xG 0.54–0.95 (36%)attempts 15–20goals 0–0
- Hague – Whitecloud15:36
xG 0.17–1.32 (11%)attempts 6–31goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).