Fri, Nov 25, 2022·Honda Center, Anaheim
Ottawa Senators 5, Anaheim Ducks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 27 | 218 | 18 | 533 |
| ANA | 013 | 08 | 111 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:24OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Drake Batherson, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 18:19OTTDerick BrassardGWGAssists: Mathieu Joseph, Jake Sanderson · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 10:29OTTTim StützlePPAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Drake Batherson · Snap, 0.13 xG3–0
- P2 14:54OTTArtem ZubAssists: Derick Brassard, Mathieu Joseph · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–0
- P3 6:49OTTMathieu JosephPPAssists: Derick Brassard, Shane Pinto · Tip-in, 0.12 xG5–0
- P3 17:10ANAMax JonesAssists: Colton White, Nathan Beaulieu · Tip-in, 0.14 xG5–1
Penalties (16)
- P1 1:09OTTTim Stützle: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:44OTTLassi Thomson: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:25ANARyan Strome: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:54OTTTravis Hamonic: Interference2 min
- P2 5:20ANAFrank Vatrano: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:15ANAColton White: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:15ANAMason McTavish: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:53ANAMason McTavish: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:51ANARyan Strome: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:51ANARyan Strome: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:51OTTBrady Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:45OTTLassi Thomson: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:35ANASam Carrick: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:17OTTBrady Tkachuk: Holding2 min
- P3 17:10OTTBrady Tkachuk: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 18:19ANAMax Jones: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Zegras
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Motte – Joseph7:11
xG 0.38–0.23 (62%)attempts 9–5goals 2–1
- DeBrincat – Batherson – Pinto6:45
xG 0.29–0.18 (62%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Giroux – Tkachuk – Stützle6:42
xG 0.24–0.15 (62%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Watson – Gambrell – Kelly7:21
xG 0.11–0.57 (16%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Sanderson10:04
xG 0.73–0.32 (70%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Chabot – Zub13:15
xG 0.32–0.35 (47%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Brannstrom – Thomson8:16
xG 0.02–0.30 (7%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestCarrick – Lundeström – Regenda5:14
xG 0.44–0.05 (90%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Strome – Vatrano5:24
xG 0.00–0.03 (13%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Henrique – Terry – Zegras7:43
xG 0.41–0.52 (44%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Jones – Leason – McTavish6:32
xG 0.16–0.44 (27%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Beaulieu8:50
xG 0.46–0.35 (57%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Fowler – White2:17
xG 0.03–0.12 (22%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- White – Benoit8:46
xG 0.24–0.35 (41%)attempts 3–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).