Fri, Nov 25, 2022·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 215 | 29 | 05 | 429 |
| PHI | 07 | 08 | 115 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:37PITJosh ArchibaldAssists: Teddy Blueger · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 19:29PITSidney CrosbyGWGAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Kris Letang · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 2:59PITRyan PoehlingAssists: Teddy Blueger, Jeff Petry · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–0
- P2 13:37PITRyan PoehlingAssists: Teddy Blueger, Josh Archibald · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–0
- P3 10:04PHIKevin HayesAssists: Nicolas Deslauriers, Travis Sanheim · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 14:12PITDanton Heinen: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:30PHIIvan Provorov: Interference2 min
- P2 2:04PHINicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:04PITMarcus Pettersson: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:25PHINick Seeler: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:25PHINick Seeler: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:25PITBrock McGinn: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:19PITEvgeni Malkin: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:19PHITravis Sanheim: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:17PITJeff Petry: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 18:08PHIPatrick Brown: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestArchibald – Blueger – Poehling8:30
xG 0.93–0.08 (93%)attempts 12–4goals 3–0
- Crosby – Rakell – Guentzel11:17
xG 0.71–0.35 (67%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Malkin – Zucker – Rust11:48
xG 0.68–0.31 (68%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Carter – McGinn – Heinen11:32
xG 0.20–0.28 (42%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Pettersson13:12
xG 1.12–0.43 (72%)attempts 21–8goals 2–0
- Dumoulin – Rutta14:41
xG 0.72–0.25 (74%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Letang – Joseph2:37
xG 0.11–0.03 (80%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestMacEwen – Cates – Farabee5:10
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Bellows – MacEwen – Frost7:43
xG 0.29–0.19 (60%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Hayes – Brown – Cates2:09
xG 0.12–0.04 (72%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – Sedlak – Laczynski2:35
xG 0.08–0.14 (38%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ristolainen – Provorov2:03
xG 0.01–0.06 (10%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Sanheim11:29
xG 0.35–0.44 (44%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Braun – Seeler8:34
xG 0.37–0.48 (43%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).