Sat, Nov 26, 2022·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Calgary Flames 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 18 | 18 | 04 | 220 |
| CAR | 114 | 19 | 110 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:20CARSeth JarvisAssists: Brent Burns · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 18:09CGYAdam RuzickaPPAssists: Michael Stone, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 3:41CARMartin NecasPPAssists: Stefan Noesen, Andrei Svechnikov · Snap, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 12:57CGYTyler ToffoliAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 8:46CARBrett PescePPGWGAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Paul Stastny · Snap, 0.07 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:54CGYNikita Zadorov: Interference2 min
- P1 16:36CARJordan Staal: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 2:47CGYMichael Stone: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:25CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:30CARStefan Noesen: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:03CGYBlake Coleman: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:52CARSebastian Aho: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:52CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Kotkaniemi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Huberdeau10:56
xG 0.40–0.22 (64%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Lindholm – Ruzicka10:12
xG 0.19–0.33 (37%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Lewis – Lucic – Ritchie4:44
xG 0.08–0.58 (12%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Kadri – Mangiapane – Dube10:18
xG 0.11–0.95 (10%)attempts 5–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Zadorov11:06
xG 0.70–0.49 (59%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Tanev – Weegar16:38
xG 0.56–0.47 (54%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Andersson13:29
xG 0.22–1.21 (16%)attempts 6–21goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Stepan – Drury5:18
xG 0.76–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook11:30
xG 0.62–0.40 (61%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Aho – Necas – Jarvis12:00
xG 0.77–0.76 (50%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
- Noesen – Kotkaniemi – Svechnikov11:50
xG 0.17–0.20 (46%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin14:38
xG 1.12–0.04 (97%)attempts 20–9goals 1–0
- Skjei – Pesce15:47
xG 0.86–0.83 (51%)attempts 15–18goals 0–0
- de Haan – Chatfield11:16
xG 0.31–0.38 (45%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).