Sat, Nov 26, 2022·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
St. Louis Blues 5, Florida Panthers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 111 | 06 | 319 | 11 | 537 |
| FLA | 317 | 116 | 04 | 00 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:20FLAAaron EkbladAssists: Eetu Luostarinen, Gustav Forsling · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 2:58FLARadko GudasUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–2
- P1 8:47FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–3
- P1 11:39STLBrandon SaadAssists: Josh Leivo, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–3
- P2 12:50FLAAnton LundellSHAssists: Sam Reinhart, Gustav Forsling · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 8:16STLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Calle Rosen, Brandon Saad · Wrap-around, 0.01 xG2–4
- P3 13:43STLJordan KyrouAssists: Torey Krug, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 16:11STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–4
- OT 1:08STLJordan KyrouGWGAssists: Torey Krug, Vladimir Tarasenko · Backhand, 0.12 xG5–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 12:57STLPavel Buchnevich: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:44FLASam Bennett: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:33STLTorey Krug: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:33FLAPatric Hornqvist: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:12FLAMarc Staal: Holding2 min
- P2 10:50FLARadko Gudas: Holding2 min
- P3 3:02FLAAnton Lundell: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:01STLRobert Bortuzzo: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:01FLACarter Verhaeghe: Embellishment2 min
- P3 8:22STLColton Parayko: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Buchnevich – Barbashev4:57
xG 0.30–0.05 (86%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- O'Reilly – Leivo – Saad9:14
xG 0.33–0.31 (51%)attempts 7–8goals 2–1
- O'Reilly – Walker – Acciari2:25
xG 0.08–0.29 (21%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas5:42
xG 0.11–0.38 (23%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestParayko – Rosen4:34
xG 0.25–0.11 (69%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Leddy – Parayko8:27
xG 0.33–0.26 (57%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Faulk – Krug6:33
xG 0.21–0.19 (53%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Reinhart – Lundell11:32
xG 0.66–0.27 (71%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Staal – Hornqvist – Lomberg4:05
xG 0.56–0.19 (75%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Staal – Cousins – White5:59
xG 0.49–0.28 (63%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Bennett – Tkachuk – Luostarinen9:33
xG 0.12–0.32 (28%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Mahura13:35
xG 1.23–0.40 (75%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Montour – Forsling2:54
xG 0.53–0.07 (88%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Montour10:33
xG 0.16–0.37 (29%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).