Sun, Nov 27, 2022·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Arizona Coyotes 3, Minnesota Wild 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 05 | 18 | 210 | 323 |
| MIN | 111 | 110 | 28 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:08MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek · Snap, 0.21 xG0–1
- P2 4:01MINSam SteelAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–2
- P2 18:36ARINick SchmaltzAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Clayton Keller · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 0:36MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Jake Middleton, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–3
- P3 6:33MINMatt BoldyPPGWGAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Calen Addison · Snap, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 16:42ARILawson CrouseAssists: Matias Maccelli · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 18:12ARIJ.J. MoserAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Matias Maccelli · Snap, 0.15 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:32ARIJack McBain: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:44MINMarcus Foligno: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 1:44MINMarcus Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:44MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:44ARILiam O'Brien: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:44MINMarcus Foligno: Misconduct10 min
- P2 3:36ARITravis Boyd: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:40ARILiam O'Brien: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 5:42ARIClayton Keller: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaudreau won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBoyd – Schmaltz – Keller13:49
xG 0.26–0.19 (57%)attempts 9–15goals 1–1
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli8:54
xG 0.32–0.30 (52%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- O'Brien – Fischer – McBain6:39
xG 0.22–0.20 (52%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Kassian – Ritchie – Hayton8:15
xG 0.09–0.70 (11%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Chychrun18:39
xG 0.65–0.55 (54%)attempts 17–17goals 1–1
- Nemeth – Stecher11:04
xG 0.26–0.31 (45%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Välimäki – Moser14:37
xG 0.18–0.37 (33%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKaprizov – Shaw – Dewar2:08
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Reaves – Foligno – Eriksson Ek7:12
xG 0.34–0.06 (84%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Greenway – Boldy8:20
xG 0.22–0.19 (54%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Steel12:55
xG 0.32–0.30 (51%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba13:16
xG 0.82–0.34 (71%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Merrill – Addison6:11
xG 0.38–0.10 (79%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Middleton10:39
xG 0.24–0.20 (54%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).