Sun, Nov 27, 2022·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Vancouver Canucks 4, San Jose Sharks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 17 | 06 | 26 | 11 | 420 |
| SJS | 011 | 15 | 219 | 00 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:26VANKyle BurroughsAssists: Bo Horvat, J.T. Miller · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 16:12SJSLuke KuninAssists: Nick Bonino, Matt Benning · Deflected, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 7:05SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Alexander Barabanov · Slap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 8:14VANIlya MikheyevAssists: Andrei Kuzmenko, Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 10:44VANElias PetterssonAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Ilya Mikheyev · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 14:45SJSLuke KuninAssists: Erik Karlsson, Nick Bonino · Slap, 0.22 xG3–3
- OT 1:12VANAndrei KuzmenkoGWGAssists: J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 13:53SJSLuke Kunin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:14SJSKevin Labanc: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:00VANKyle Burroughs: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Pettersson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestLazar – Joshua – Aman8:21
xG 0.48–0.17 (74%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Mikheyev – Kuzmenko11:49
xG 0.58–0.34 (63%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
- Miller – Horvat – Hoglander12:57
xG 0.17–0.41 (29%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Boeser – Garland – Dries9:41
xG 0.11–0.50 (18%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Bear16:09
xG 0.86–0.59 (60%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Schenn – Hughes14:40
xG 0.55–0.61 (48%)attempts 18–17goals 1–1
- Myers – Burroughs16:00
xG 0.15–0.58 (21%)attempts 13–22goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Kunin – Gregor12:36
xG 0.85–0.35 (71%)attempts 21–12goals 2–0
- Hertl – Labanc – Meier13:18
xG 0.25–0.34 (42%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Couture – Nieto – Barabanov12:23
xG 0.27–0.37 (42%)attempts 8–19goals 0–3
- Lindblom – Svechnikov – Lorentz5:05
xG 0.15–0.48 (23%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Megna19:24
xG 0.97–0.39 (71%)attempts 26–13goals 1–1
- Vlasic – Benning15:50
xG 0.62–0.40 (61%)attempts 15–15goals 1–1
- Simek – Cicek12:25
xG 0.42–0.43 (49%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).