Tue, Nov 29, 2022·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 013 | 217 | 08 | 11 | 339 |
| PIT | 18 | 010 | 114 | 00 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:34PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Jake Guentzel, Pierre-Olivier Joseph · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 5:45CARMartin NecasAssists: Brett Pesce, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–1
- P2 17:38CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Sebastian Aho, Stefan Noesen · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 19:02PITJake GuentzelAssists: Jeff Petry, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–2
- OT 2:20CARBrett PesceGWGAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Seth Jarvis · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:08PITJake Guentzel: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:55CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:47CARCalvin de Haan: Interference2 min
- P3 2:40PITRickard Rakell: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Fast – Martinook13:46
xG 0.86–0.74 (54%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Stastny – Stepan – Drury4:40
xG 0.09–0.04 (71%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Aho – Necas – Jarvis13:25
xG 0.48–0.56 (47%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Noesen – Kotkaniemi – Svechnikov9:37
xG 0.19–0.44 (31%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce19:06
xG 1.04–0.68 (61%)attempts 18–18goals 1–0
- Burns – Slavin17:12
xG 0.78–0.77 (50%)attempts 25–15goals 1–1
- de Haan – Chatfield11:30
xG 0.32–0.67 (32%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCarter – McGinn – Kapanen10:12
xG 0.45–0.19 (70%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Malkin – Zucker – Rust11:45
xG 0.61–0.51 (54%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rakell – Guentzel14:23
xG 0.96–0.95 (50%)attempts 19–17goals 1–1
- Archibald – Blueger – Poehling7:34
xG 0.19–0.60 (24%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Rutta15:40
xG 0.64–0.52 (55%)attempts 16–17goals 0–1
- Petry – Dumoulin14:46
xG 0.44–0.36 (55%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Petry – Pettersson2:01
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).