Tue, Nov 29, 2022·TD Garden, Boston
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 07 | 111 | 010 | 128 |
| BOS | 19 | 011 | 26 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:07BOSTaylor HallAssists: Brandon Carlo, Trent Frederic · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 18:20TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point · Slap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 2:49BOSTaylor HallPPGWGAssists: Pavel Zacha, Nick Foligno · Snap, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 19:19BOSBrad MarchandENAssists: David Krejci · Wrist, 0.74 xG1–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 16:20BOSBrad Marchand: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:25BOSPavel Zacha: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 1:07TBLNick Perbix: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Nosek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Kucherov – Hagel7:09
xG 0.31–0.18 (64%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Killorn – Paul – Point6:43
xG 0.10–0.02 (84%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Maroon – Bellemare – Koepke7:30
xG 0.08–0.03 (70%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Perry – Namestnikov – Colton9:44
xG 0.23–0.32 (41%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Cernak – Sergachev4:31
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Cole – Bogosian10:24
xG 0.33–0.36 (48%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Hedman2:19
xG 0.07–0.14 (34%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk13:13
xG 0.74–0.22 (77%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Krejci – Pastrnak – Zacha11:56
xG 0.16–0.02 (88%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Coyle – Hall – Frederic9:02
xG 0.19–0.11 (64%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Foligno – Nosek – Greer7:46
xG 0.14–0.24 (37%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – McAvoy19:42
xG 1.14–0.56 (67%)attempts 23–21goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – Carlo10:30
xG 0.23–0.08 (76%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Grzelcyk – Clifton3:21
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).