Wed, Nov 30, 2022·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Buffalo Sabres 5, Detroit Red Wings 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 212 | 212 | 08 | 02 | 1 | 534 |
| DET | 116 | 011 | 317 | 01 | 0 | 445 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:20DETJonatan BerggrenAssists: Filip Hronek, Joseph Veleno · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 4:53BUFDylan CozensSHAssists: Craig Anderson · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 8:25BUFMattias SamuelssonAssists: Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 8:12BUFDylan CozensAssists: JJ Peterka, Jack Quinn · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 10:17BUFJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG4–1
- P3 6:51DETDavid PerronAssists: Dylan Larkin, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 10:41DETOskar SundqvistAssists: Andrew Copp, Jordan Oesterle · Snap, 0.17 xG4–3
- P3 12:31DETOskar SundqvistAssists: Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. DET Lucas Raymond stopped
- 2. BUF Tage Thompson stopped
- 3. DET David Perron stopped
- 4. BUF JJ Peterka stopped
- 5. DET Dylan Larkin stopped
- 6. BUF Jack Quinn scored
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:33BUFMattias Samuelsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:19BUFAlex Tuch: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:41DETOlli Maatta: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 11:21BUFZemgus Girgensons: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:24BUFOwen Power: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:17DETJake Walman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 14:35BUFHenri Jokiharju: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:10BUFRasmus Dahlin: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:44BUFMattias Samuelsson: Tripping2 min
- OT 5:00DETAndrew Copp: Roughing2 min
- OT 5:00BUFRasmus Dahlin: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jost won the faceoff against Copp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Girgensons – Jost9:50
xG 0.83–0.37 (69%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson12:10
xG 0.51–0.59 (47%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Cozens – Quinn – Peterka8:20
xG 0.26–0.35 (43%)attempts 10–11goals 2–1
- Hinostroza – Olofsson – Mittelstadt7:09
xG 0.19–0.66 (23%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Dahlin2:55
xG 0.67–0.13 (83%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Fitzgerald – Pilut2:15
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Power2:18
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestSuter – Veleno – Berggren7:16
xG 0.41–0.14 (74%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Perron – Bertuzzi – Rasmussen7:21
xG 0.45–0.24 (65%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Sundqvist – Copp – Erne8:36
xG 0.52–0.36 (59%)attempts 9–4goals 2–0
- Kubalik – Larkin – Raymond10:23
xG 0.33–0.98 (25%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOesterle – Walman13:40
xG 0.88–0.29 (75%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0
- Chiarot – Seider9:56
xG 0.40–0.58 (41%)attempts 10–14goals 0–2
- Maatta – Hronek14:36
xG 0.58–0.91 (39%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).