Thu, Dec 1, 2022·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Carolina Hurricanes 6, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 09 | 318 | 39 | 636 |
| STL | 16 | 29 | 111 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:00STLPavel BuchnevichPPAssists: Robert Thomas, Vladimir Tarasenko · Tip-in, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 2:31STLNoel AcciariAssists: Nick Leddy, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 5:24CARBrent BurnsPPUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 5:45CARJordan MartinookUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 6:28CARSeth JarvisAssists: Martin Necas · Snap, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 15:55STLTorey KrugPPAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 15:25CARJordan MartinookAssists: Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 18:02CARJordan StaalENGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.63 xG5–3
- P3 19:18STLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Jordan Kyrou · Snap, 0.17 xG5–4
- P3 19:51CARJordan MartinookENAssists: Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.79 xG6–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 11:33CARJaccob Slavin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 4:13STLBrayden Schenn: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:16CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:31CARJordan Martinook: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Fast – Martinook13:13
xG 0.86–0.11 (89%)attempts 14–5goals 2–0
- Noesen – Kotkaniemi – Svechnikov8:21
xG 0.65–0.03 (95%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Stastny – Noesen – Svechnikov2:04
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Stastny – Stepan – Drury5:26
xG 0.27–0.20 (58%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce19:49
xG 1.49–0.30 (83%)attempts 24–7goals 1–0
- Burns – Slavin17:58
xG 0.76–0.44 (63%)attempts 14–12goals 2–1
- de Haan – Chatfield11:36
xG 0.42–0.86 (33%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Leivo – Saad13:10
xG 0.83–0.40 (68%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas4:29
xG 0.20–0.11 (63%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Schenn – Tarasenko – Acciari2:01
xG 0.02–0.05 (23%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
- Barbashev – Acciari – Neighbours2:52
xG 0.16–0.25 (39%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Parayko17:33
xG 0.87–0.45 (66%)attempts 10–12goals 0–2
- Bortuzzo – Rosen5:06
xG 0.16–0.08 (68%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Mikkola – Rosen3:48
xG 0.10–0.16 (38%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).