Thu, Dec 1, 2022·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Florida Panthers 5, Vancouver Canucks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 318 | 19 | 15 | 532 |
| VAN | 08 | 18 | 017 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:14FLAMatthew TkachukAssists: Josh Mahura · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 18:49FLAGustav ForslingGWGAssists: Sam Reinhart, Eetu Luostarinen · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P1 19:13FLARyan LombergAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–0
- P2 11:38FLASam BennettAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Matthew Tkachuk · Snap, 0.21 xG4–0
- P2 12:26VANDakota JoshuaAssists: Ethan Bear, Sheldon Dries · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–1
- P3 11:11FLASam BennettAssists: Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:24FLARadko Gudas: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:40VANBrock Boeser: Interference2 min
- P2 5:34VANDakota Joshua: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:25FLARadko Gudas: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:25VANJ.T. Miller: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:10FLAAleksi Heponiemi: Holding2 min
- P3 3:25FLAAaron Ekblad: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Lundell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Hornqvist – Lomberg9:01
xG 1.11–0.37 (75%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk12:36
xG 0.84–0.33 (72%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
- Cousins – Reinhart – Luostarinen7:32
xG 0.65–0.34 (66%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Cousins – Reinhart – Lundell2:27
xG 0.02–0.01 (64%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Montour13:08
xG 1.20–0.43 (74%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Ekblad – Forsling15:17
xG 0.92–0.49 (65%)attempts 13–15goals 2–0
- Gudas – Mahura12:16
xG 0.44–0.32 (57%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Horvat – Hoglander7:55
xG 0.42–0.27 (61%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Boeser – Garland – Dries5:23
xG 0.28–0.31 (47%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Miller – Horvat – Boeser4:41
xG 0.16–0.20 (43%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Lazar – Joshua – Aman7:40
xG 0.04–0.20 (17%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Bear5:15
xG 0.30–0.09 (77%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Bear9:58
xG 0.27–0.31 (47%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Ekman-Larsson – Hughes6:32
xG 0.37–0.68 (35%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).