Thu, Dec 1, 2022·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Washington Capitals 2, Seattle Kraken 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 24 | 07 | 012 | 00 | 223 |
| SEA | 06 | 18 | 110 | 11 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:36WSHMartin FehérváryAssists: Conor Sheary, Alex Ovechkin · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 14:04WSHConor ShearyPPAssists: Marcus Johansson, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 13:28SEAJaden SchwartzPPAssists: Vince Dunn, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–1
- P3 17:33SEAYanni GourdeAssists: Daniel Sprong, Vince Dunn · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–2
- OT 0:07SEAMatty BeniersGWGAssists: Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:39SEAYanni Gourde: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 10:39WSHT.J. Oshie: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:56SEAJordan Eberle: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:35WSHDarcy Kuemper: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:01SEAYanni Gourde: Holding2 min
- P2 13:12WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:49SEAJaden Schwartz: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:15SEAMatty Beniers: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Kuznetsov – Mantha3:02
xG 0.32–0.17 (65%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Dowd – Hathaway – Protas10:17
xG 0.38–0.33 (54%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
- Eller – Johansson – Milano2:37
xG 0.03–0.01 (72%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Eller – Johansson – Mantha3:31
xG 0.06–0.05 (53%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Fehérváry17:43
xG 0.97–0.69 (59%)attempts 12–21goals 1–0
- Irwin – van Riemsdyk9:50
xG 0.10–0.14 (42%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Carlson – Gustafsson14:29
xG 0.50–0.55 (48%)attempts 9–20goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Bjorkstrand – Tanev8:41
xG 0.46–0.13 (78%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers11:18
xG 0.30–0.29 (51%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Schwartz – Burakovsky – Wennberg13:28
xG 0.45–0.50 (47%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Donato – Sprong – Kuhlman3:47
xG 0.02–0.25 (9%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn17:23
xG 0.51–0.36 (58%)attempts 21–10goals 0–1
- Soucy – Borgen11:03
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Schultz – Oleksiak12:57
xG 0.62–0.63 (50%)attempts 23–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).