Sat, Dec 3, 2022·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Arizona Coyotes 2, Vancouver Canucks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 19 | 16 | 08 | 00 | 223 |
| VAN | 112 | 07 | 18 | 15 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:22ARIChristian FischerAssists: Liam O'Brien, Juuso Välimäki · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 16:49VANBo HorvatPPAssists: Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 1:52ARIJakob ChychrunPPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Matias Maccelli · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 11:48VANBrock BoeserAssists: Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- OT 4:09VANBo HorvatPPGWGAssists: Quinn Hughes, J.T. Miller · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 12:57ARIDylan Guenther: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 15:55ARINick Schmaltz: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 1:34VANQuinn Hughes: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 2:15ARITroy Stecher: Interference2 min
- P2 13:37VANJ.T. Miller: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:02ARIJakob Chychrun: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:00ARIJ.J. Moser: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:41ARILawson Crouse: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 12:45VANBo Horvat: Interference2 min
- P3 14:43ARIBarrett Hayton: Tripping2 min
- OT 3:22ARIClayton Keller: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestO'Brien – Hayton – Guenther2:50
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Fischer – McBain8:56
xG 0.32–0.18 (64%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli7:27
xG 0.21–0.40 (34%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Boyd – Schmaltz – Keller11:10
xG 0.38–0.68 (36%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Chychrun12:03
xG 0.57–0.36 (61%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Brown – Välimäki3:11
xG 0.26–0.20 (56%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Stecher – Moser3:11
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBoeser – Pettersson – Mikheyev3:54
xG 0.76–0.08 (90%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Miller – Horvat – Hoglander12:39
xG 0.72–0.37 (66%)attempts 25–8goals 0–0
- Boeser – Garland – Dries4:16
xG 0.19–0.13 (60%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Mikheyev – Kuzmenko5:13
xG 0.12–0.16 (43%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Hughes12:49
xG 0.60–0.23 (73%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Bear – Stillman2:42
xG 0.44–0.19 (70%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Bear8:53
xG 0.23–0.31 (43%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).