Mon, Dec 5, 2022·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Montréal Canadiens 6, Vancouver Canucks 7 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 411 | 08 | 27 | 00 | 626 |
| VAN | 09 | 213 | 49 | 11 | 732 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:49MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Jordan Harris · Slap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 12:34MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Kaiden Guhle · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 14:57MTLSean MonahanAssists: Nick Suzuki, Mike Matheson · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–0
- P1 16:17MTLMichael PezzettaAssists: Jordan Harris, Jake Evans · Backhand, 0.10 xG4–0
- P2 16:44VANConor GarlandAssists: Andrei Kuzmenko · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
- P2 18:28VANIlya MikheyevAssists: Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser · Snap, 0.21 xG4–2
- P3 4:02VANBo HorvatAssists: Nils Hoglander, Riley Stillman · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–3
- P3 5:45VANIlya MikheyevAssists: Elias Pettersson, Riley Stillman · Snap, 0.12 xG4–4
- P3 8:49VANJack StudnickaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–5
- P3 15:23MTLChristian DvorakAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Joel Armia · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–5
- P3 17:00MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Arber Xhekaj, Mike Matheson · Wrist, 0.14 xG6–5
- P3 18:35VANAndrei KuzmenkoPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes · Tip-in, 0.16 xG6–6
- OT 0:13VANElias PetterssonGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.34 xG6–7
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:00MTLArber Xhekaj: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:00VANLuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:00VANLuke Schenn: Interference2 min
- P1 10:24MTLJoel Armia: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:52VANBrock Boeser: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:58VANOliver Ekman-Larsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:28MTLJohnathan Kovacevic: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Pettersson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestAnderson – Evans – Slafkovský5:34
xG 0.66–0.17 (79%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Dadonov – Armia – Dvorak12:49
xG 0.90–0.64 (58%)attempts 13–15goals 1–2
- Suzuki – Dach – Caufield13:46
xG 0.65–0.49 (57%)attempts 13–9goals 2–2
- Evans – Pitlick – Pezzetta5:44
xG 0.30–0.48 (38%)attempts 5–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHarris – Xhekaj11:19
xG 0.80–0.57 (58%)attempts 10–12goals 3–3
- Edmundson – Guhle15:56
xG 0.77–0.89 (46%)attempts 13–16goals 1–2
- Matheson – Kovacevic18:13
xG 0.61–1.07 (36%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBoeser – Pettersson – Mikheyev13:30
xG 0.97–0.63 (61%)attempts 12–10goals 2–2
- Garland – Dries – Kuzmenko8:52
xG 0.40–0.24 (63%)attempts 12–5goals 1–1
- Lazar – Studnicka – Aman9:21
xG 0.58–0.79 (42%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Miller – Horvat – Hoglander11:56
xG 0.48–0.75 (39%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Bear15:46
xG 0.61–0.41 (60%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Myers – Bear2:02
xG 0.22–0.19 (54%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Myers – Stillman11:37
xG 0.80–0.84 (49%)attempts 11–12goals 4–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).