Tue, Dec 6, 2022·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Florida Panthers 2, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 17 | 025 | 19 | 241 |
| WPG | 214 | 28 | 19 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:20WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 14:11FLACarter VerhaeghePPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 14:28WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Brenden Dillon · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 1:43WPGKyle ConnorGWGAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 13:23WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Kyle Connor, Nate Schmidt · Snap, 0.24 xG1–4
- P3 9:02FLAZac DalpeAssists: Chris Tierney, Matt Kiersted · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 16:59WPGAdam LowryENAssists: Dylan Samberg · Wrist, 0.70 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:20FLABrandon Montour: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:34FLASam Bennett: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:38WPGBrenden Dillon: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 17:03FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:50WPGNeal Pionk: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:50FLANick Cousins: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 11:25FLAJosh Mahura: Boarding2 min
- P2 13:59WPGDylan Samberg: Interference2 min
- P2 18:55WPGJosh Morrissey: Holding2 min
- P3 2:38WPGMichael Eyssimont: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Luostarinen won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk11:41
xG 0.89–0.35 (72%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Staal – White – Lomberg8:44
xG 0.59–0.23 (72%)attempts 14–4goals 0–1
- Dalpe – Tierney – Heponiemi4:45
xG 0.14–0.19 (43%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Cousins – Reinhart – Luostarinen8:57
xG 0.20–0.63 (24%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Mahura13:11
xG 0.29–0.18 (62%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Kiersted8:56
xG 0.36–0.45 (44%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Montour – Forsling11:53
xG 0.45–0.75 (38%)attempts 11–13goals 0–2
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Jonsson-Fjallby – Gustafsson4:37
xG 0.22–0.04 (85%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Connor – Dubois – Eyssimont10:32
xG 0.44–0.33 (57%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Perfetti12:20
xG 0.77–0.69 (53%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Lowry – Maenalanen – Barron9:28
xG 0.30–0.98 (24%)attempts 6–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Samberg12:38
xG 0.78–0.65 (55%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Dillon – Pionk9:48
xG 0.46–0.34 (58%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Morrissey – Pionk3:38
xG 0.14–0.31 (31%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).