Wed, Dec 7, 2022·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Buffalo Sabres 9, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 614 | 312 | 04 | 930 |
| CBJ | 05 | 212 | 27 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:21BUFDylan CozensPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Tage Thompson · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 5:32BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Alex Tuch · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–0
- P1 7:28BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Dylan Cozens, Jack Quinn · Snap, 0.09 xG3–0
- P1 7:50BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Alex Tuch, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–0
- P1 12:22BUFTage ThompsonPPGWGAssists: Jeff Skinner, Dylan Cozens · Slap, 0.08 xG5–0
- P1 16:40BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Jeff Skinner, Rasmus Dahlin · Slap, 0.14 xG6–0
- P2 10:49CBJPatrik LaineAssists: Jack Roslovic · Snap, 0.04 xG6–1
- P2 12:04CBJGustav NyquistAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Boone Jenner · Wrist, 0.09 xG6–2
- P2 16:07BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Alex Tuch, Jacob Bryson · Snap, 0.03 xG7–2
- P2 17:19BUFPeyton KrebsUnassisted · Backhand, 0.18 xG8–2
- P2 19:16BUFAlex TuchAssists: Jeff Skinner, Jacob Bryson · Wrist, 0.04 xG9–2
- P3 4:47CBJPatrik LaineAssists: Vladislav Gavrikov, Egor Chinakhov · Slap, 0.09 xG9–3
- P3 15:49CBJGustav NyquistAssists: Marcus Bjork · Snap, 0.06 xG9–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:28CBJEric Robinson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:09CBJSean Kuraly: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:09CBJSean Kuraly: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:54CBJSean Kuraly: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:58CBJJack Roslovic: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:13BUFJJ Peterka: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 17:13CBJSean Kuraly: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:13BUFOwen Power: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:15BUFOwen Power: Penalty shot throwing object at puck0 min
- P3 8:11CBJSean Kuraly: Misconduct10 min
- P3 8:11BUFDylan Cozens: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Sillinger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOlofsson – Jost – Mittelstadt9:47
xG 0.37–0.21 (64%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs11:37
xG 0.04–0.15 (22%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Cozens – Quinn – Peterka12:28
xG 0.18–0.50 (27%)attempts 8–12goals 1–2
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson8:44
xG 0.34–0.77 (31%)attempts 11–13goals 4–0
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Power17:31
xG 0.60–0.53 (53%)attempts 13–12goals 3–0
- Bryson – Pilut9:49
xG 0.16–0.25 (39%)attempts 8–5goals 1–2
- Samuelsson – Dahlin11:13
xG 0.30–0.51 (37%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Jenner – Johnson8:55
xG 0.58–0.25 (69%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Roslovic – Laine – Chinakhov8:21
xG 0.32–0.11 (74%)attempts 6–5goals 2–0
- Kuraly – Olivier – Robinson5:28
xG 0.40–0.22 (65%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Nyquist – Marchenko – Sillinger6:50
xG 0.20–0.04 (83%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Bjork11:28
xG 0.90–0.34 (72%)attempts 17–10goals 3–2
- Gudbranson – Berni16:13
xG 0.15–0.29 (34%)attempts 4–9goals 1–1
- Peeke – Bayreuther12:41
xG 0.25–0.51 (33%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).