Tue, Dec 13, 2022·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Anaheim Ducks 0, Toronto Maple Leafs 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 016 | 06 | 06 | 028 |
| TOR | 214 | 217 | 311 | 742 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:58TORAlexander KerfootGWGAssists: Pierre Engvall, Conor Timmins · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 8:41TORJohn TavaresAssists: Mitch Marner, Conor Timmins · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–2
- P2 12:16TORTJ BrodieAssists: Conor Timmins, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–3
- P2 16:33TORMichael BuntingAssists: John Tavares, Mitch Marner · Backhand, 0.20 xG0–4
- P3 2:37TORAlexander KerfootAssists: Mark Giordano, Pontus Holmberg · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–5
- P3 5:42TORPierre EngvallAssists: Rasmus Sandin, Pontus Holmberg · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–6
- P3 18:20TORJoey AndersonAssists: Pontus Holmberg, Rasmus Sandin · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–7
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:13TORRasmus Sandin: Interference2 min
- P1 19:48ANAMason McTavish: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 3:47ANADmitry Kulikov: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:45ANANathan Beaulieu: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:51TORDavid Kampf: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:51ANATrevor Zegras: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestLeason – Zegras – McTavish2:58
xG 0.57–0.15 (79%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Comtois – Leason – McTavish5:19
xG 0.45–0.31 (59%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Strome – Terry – Zegras2:56
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Zegras2:52
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Klingberg2:48
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Beaulieu7:47
xG 0.82–0.75 (52%)attempts 8–12goals 0–3
- Shattenkirk – White2:20
xG 0.04–0.02 (69%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestNylander – Bunting – Matthews9:50
xG 1.22–0.53 (70%)attempts 20–8goals 1–0
- Anderson – Aston-Reese – Holmberg9:59
xG 0.31–0.03 (91%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Kerfoot – Engvall – Kampf12:29
xG 0.52–0.58 (47%)attempts 11–15goals 2–0
- Tavares – Marner – Malgin8:05
xG 0.47–0.58 (45%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Timmins14:11
xG 0.81–0.40 (67%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Liljegren – Sandin14:09
xG 0.87–0.49 (64%)attempts 20–9goals 2–0
- Giordano – Holl14:55
xG 0.74–0.67 (53%)attempts 17–11goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).