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Ice Lab

Tue, Dec 13, 2022·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto

Anaheim Ducks 0, Toronto Maple Leafs 7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 87% of the time.

TOR winsANA wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:28Shot by Strome, saved by Samsonov
  3. P1 0:47Shot by Terry, saved by Samsonov
  4. P1 1:07Shot by McTavish, saved by Samsonov
  5. P1 1:58Goal by Kerfoot (Engvall, Timmins)+18 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Kerfoot, Engvall, Liljegren, Kampf, Sandin · ANA Silfverberg, Kulikov, Fowler, Carrick, Megna

  6. P1 2:24Shot by Terry, saved by Samsonov
  7. P1 2:31Shot by White, saved by Samsonov
  8. P1 4:19Shot by Matthews, saved by Gibson
  9. P1 4:58Shot by Sandin, saved by Gibson
  10. P1 5:13Sandin: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Nylander, Bunting, Matthews, Liljegren, Sandin · ANA Shattenkirk, Fowler, Vatrano, Terry, McTavish

  11. P1 6:33Shot by Shattenkirk, saved by Samsonov4v5
  12. P1 6:45Shot by Klingberg, saved by Samsonov4v5
  13. P1 8:41Goal by Tavares (Marner, Timmins)+12 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Tavares, Marner, Malgin, Timmins · ANA Kulikov, Carrick, Megna, White, Terry

  14. P1 10:45Shot by Matthews, saved by Gibson
  15. P1 10:47Shot by Matthews, saved by Gibson
  16. P1 10:52Shot by Brodie, saved by Gibson
  17. P1 12:03Shot by Kerfoot, saved by Gibson
  18. P1 13:30Shot by Shattenkirk, saved by Samsonov
  19. P1 14:04Shot by Nylander, saved by Gibson
  20. P1 14:10Shot by Matthews, saved by Gibson
  21. P1 16:01Shot by McTavish, saved by Samsonov
  22. P1 16:02Shot by McTavish, saved by Samsonov
  23. P1 16:14Shot by Vatrano, saved by Samsonov
  24. P1 16:17Shot by Strome, saved by Samsonov
  25. P1 16:46Shot by Liljegren, saved by Gibson
  26. P1 16:53Shot by Liljegren, saved by Gibson
  27. P1 17:03Shot by Vatrano, saved by Samsonov
  28. P1 17:33Shot by Shattenkirk, saved by Samsonov
  29. P1 17:36Shot by Leason, saved by Samsonov
  30. P1 18:14Shot by Nylander, saved by Gibson
  31. P1 18:52Shot by Vatrano, saved by Samsonov
  32. P1 19:15Shot by Sandin, saved by Gibson
  33. P1 19:48McTavish: Too many men on the ice (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Giordano, Anderson, Aston-Reese, Liljegren, Holmberg · ANA Klingberg, White, Terry, Zegras, McTavish

  34. P1 0:00Period end5v4
  35. P2 0:00Period start
  36. P2 0:22Shot by Marner, saved by Gibson5v4
  37. P2 0:54Shot by Tavares, saved by Gibson5v4
  38. P2 1:04Shot by Matthews, saved by Gibson5v4
  39. P2 2:08Shot by Malgin, saved by Gibson
  40. P2 2:31Shot by Tavares, saved by Gibson
  41. P2 3:47Kulikov: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Anderson, Aston-Reese, Timmins, Holmberg · ANA Kulikov, White, Comtois, Leason, McTavish

  42. P2 3:50Shot by Shattenkirk, saved by Samsonov5v4
  43. P2 4:35Shot by Tavares, saved by Gibson5v4
  44. P2 4:42Shot by Marner, saved by Gibson5v4
  45. P2 8:14Shot by Sandin, saved by Gibson
  46. P2 8:45Beaulieu: Cross checking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Anderson, Aston-Reese, Liljegren, Sandin, Holmberg · ANA Fowler, Strome, Beaulieu, Vatrano, Terry

  47. P2 9:29Shot by Bunting, saved by Gibson5v4
  48. P2 10:01Shot by Nylander, saved by Gibson5v4
  49. P2 10:11Shot by Nylander, saved by Gibson5v4
  50. P2 10:13Shot by Tavares, saved by Gibson5v4
  51. P2 10:14Shot by Tavares, saved by Gibson5v4
  52. P2 12:16Goal by Brodie (Timmins, Matthews)+7 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Nylander, Bunting, Matthews, Timmins · ANA Shattenkirk, Henrique, Silfverberg, Benoit, Zegras

  53. P2 12:56Shot by Strome, saved by Samsonov
  54. P2 13:30Shot by Comtois, saved by Samsonov
  55. P2 15:44Shot by Nylander, saved by Dostal
  56. P2 16:04Shot by McTavish, saved by Samsonov
  57. P2 16:33Shot by Bunting, saved by Dostal
  58. P2 16:33Goal by Bunting (Tavares, Marner)+3 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Giordano, Tavares, Holl, Bunting, Marner · ANA Klingberg, Comtois, Benoit, Leason, McTavish

  59. P2 19:00Shot by Terry, saved by Samsonov
  60. P2 19:49Shot by Shattenkirk, saved by Samsonov
  61. P2 0:00Period end
  62. P3 0:00Period start
  63. P3 1:26Shot by Nylander, saved by Dostal
  64. P3 1:56Shot by Aston-Reese, saved by Dostal
  65. P3 2:37Goal by Kerfoot (Giordano, Holmberg)+1 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Giordano, Holl, Kerfoot, Engvall, Kampf · ANA Carrick, Klingberg, Beaulieu, Megna, Vatrano

  66. P3 4:05Shot by Bunting, saved by Dostal
  67. P3 5:42Goal by Engvall (Sandin, Holmberg)0 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Holl, Engvall, Aston-Reese, Sandin, Holmberg · ANA Carrick, Klingberg, Beaulieu, Megna, Zegras

  68. P3 6:16Shot by Engvall, saved by Dostal
  69. P3 8:48Shot by Shattenkirk, saved by Samsonov
  70. P3 8:59Shot by Zegras, saved by Samsonov
  71. P3 9:12Shot by Benoit, saved by Samsonov
  72. P3 9:58Shot by Holl, saved by Dostal
  73. P3 11:07Shot by Liljegren, saved by Dostal
  74. P3 14:11Shot by Holl, saved by Dostal
  75. P3 16:46Shot by Shattenkirk, saved by Samsonov
  76. P3 17:57Shot by Comtois, saved by Samsonov
  77. P3 18:01Shot by Aston-Reese, saved by Dostal
  78. P3 18:20Goal by Anderson (Holmberg, Sandin)0 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Anderson, Aston-Reese, Liljegren, Sandin, Holmberg · ANA Silfverberg, Carrick, Klingberg, Beaulieu, Vatrano

  79. P3 18:50Shot by Henrique, saved by Samsonov
  80. P3 18:51Kampf: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Kerfoot, Engvall, Liljegren, Kampf · ANA Shattenkirk, Henrique, Terry, Benoit, Zegras

  81. P3 18:51Zegras: Roughing (2 min)4v5

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Kerfoot, Engvall, Liljegren, Kampf · ANA Shattenkirk, Henrique, Terry, Benoit, Zegras

  82. P3 0:00Period end4v4
  83. P3 0:00Final