Tue, Dec 13, 2022·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Columbus Blue Jackets 0, Florida Panthers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 010 | 09 | 03 | 022 |
| FLA | 111 | 29 | 16 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:04FLABrandon MontourGWGAssists: Gustav Forsling, Sam Reinhart · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 3:47FLAMatthew TkachukAssists: Sam Reinhart, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 19:16FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Gustav Forsling, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–3
- P3 18:14FLASam ReinhartENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.61 xG0–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:53CBJErik Gudbranson: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:38FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:15FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Holding2 min
- P2 10:37CBJVladislav Gavrikov: Holding2 min
- P3 7:50FLABrandon Montour: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:28CBJSean Kuraly: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Gaudreau – Jenner9:20
xG 0.74–0.46 (62%)attempts 11–10goals 0–2
- Marchenko – Johnson – Sillinger6:28
xG 0.16–0.03 (82%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Roslovic – Laine – Chinakhov7:35
xG 0.37–0.50 (43%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Olivier – Robinson6:01
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPeeke – Christiansen9:04
xG 0.51–0.01 (98%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Gavrikov – Bjork10:21
xG 0.60–0.52 (54%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Gavrikov3:16
xG 0.16–0.13 (55%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Cousins – Denisenko7:33
xG 0.22–0.10 (69%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Dalpe – Tierney – Lomberg2:11
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Dalpe – Bennett – Luostarinen7:30
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Barkov – Reinhart – Tkachuk12:15
xG 0.61–0.70 (47%)attempts 15–8goals 3–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Mahura6:08
xG 0.21–0.04 (82%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Forsling14:50
xG 1.00–0.93 (52%)attempts 20–15goals 2–0
- Montour – Forsling2:02
xG 0.12–0.07 (63%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).