Tue, Dec 13, 2022·United Center, Chicago
Washington Capitals 7, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 211 | 210 | 39 | 730 |
| CHI | 19 | 115 | 15 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:24WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: John Carlson, Conor Sheary · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 8:14WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Conor Sheary, Sonny Milano · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–0
- P1 19:00CHITyler JohnsonAssists: Jake McCabe, Jujhar Khaira · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 4:56WSHTrevor van RiemsdykAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Dylan Strome · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 11:38CHIJonathan ToewsPPAssists: Taylor Raddysh · Wrist, 0.32 xG3–2
- P2 17:18WSHNic DowdGWGAssists: Garnet Hathaway, Nicolas Aube-Kubel · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–2
- P3 6:34WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Anthony Mantha, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.24 xG5–2
- P3 8:59WSHAnthony ManthaAssists: Nick Jensen · Snap, 0.10 xG6–2
- P3 18:51CHIMax DomiAssists: Ian Mitchell, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.13 xG6–3
- P3 19:24WSHDmitry OrlovAssists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Garnet Hathaway · Slap, 0.02 xG7–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 6:19CHISam Lafferty: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 0:58WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:37WSHNicolas Aube-Kubel: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 13:49WSHJohn Carlson: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Hathaway – Aube-Kubel9:29
xG 0.85–0.28 (75%)attempts 17–8goals 2–0
- Kuznetsov – Mantha – Milano7:34
xG 0.26–0.09 (75%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Johansson – Mantha – Protas3:11
xG 0.11–0.04 (72%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Sheary – Strome11:31
xG 0.62–0.69 (47%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Gustafsson11:07
xG 0.50–0.08 (87%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Carlson – Orlov3:36
xG 0.22–0.00 (99%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Orlov – Jensen15:02
xG 0.38–0.40 (49%)attempts 16–11goals 2–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Khaira – Dickinson – Lafferty2:32
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Khaira – Dickinson9:43
xG 0.17–0.18 (48%)attempts 4–7goals 1–1
- Toews – Raddysh – Kurashev12:00
xG 0.45–0.51 (47%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- Blackwell – Entwistle – Johnson5:52
xG 0.06–0.17 (25%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Mitchell8:50
xG 0.59–0.39 (60%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Tinordi – Mitchell6:32
xG 0.19–0.15 (55%)attempts 3–6goals 1–1
- McCabe – Jones6:48
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 4–6goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).