Tue, Dec 13, 2022·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Arizona Coyotes 2, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 18 | 05 | 19 | 222 |
| SJS | 213 | 114 | 06 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:50SJSTomas HertlAssists: Radim Simek, Scott Harrington · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 4:52SJSNick BoninoAssists: Erik Karlsson, Jonah Gadjovich · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P1 18:05ARILawson CrousePPAssists: Clayton Keller, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–2
- P2 8:09SJSNico SturmGWGAssists: Nick Bonino, Scott Harrington · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 2:56ARINick BjugstadAssists: Patrik Nemeth, Matias Maccelli · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:25ARIJ.J. Moser: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:57SJSKevin Labanc: Interference2 min
- P1 16:30SJSOskar Lindblom: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:04SJSNick Bonino: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:45ARIChristian Fischer: Holding2 min
- P2 19:57SJSSteven Lorentz: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:46SJSTomas Hertl: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli10:42
xG 0.59–0.55 (52%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- O'Brien – Fischer – McBain8:33
xG 0.05–0.46 (10%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
- Ritchie – Keller – Hayton4:04
xG 0.11–0.62 (15%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Boyd – Schmaltz – Keller10:24
xG 0.10–0.65 (13%)attempts 4–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Brown – Välimäki2:47
xG 0.04–0.04 (50%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Stecher12:27
xG 0.39–0.48 (45%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- Brown – Moser7:55
xG 0.21–0.40 (34%)attempts 6–8goals 0–2
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Labanc – Meier9:17
xG 0.66–0.21 (76%)attempts 16–3goals 1–1
- Lorentz – Gregor – Gadjovich2:39
xG 0.20–0.02 (89%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Bonino – Couture – Gregor6:31
xG 0.33–0.20 (62%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Lindblom – Svechnikov – Sturm5:00
xG 0.08–0.04 (66%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Megna16:02
xG 1.39–0.45 (76%)attempts 28–11goals 1–1
- Harrington – Simek10:39
xG 0.59–0.20 (75%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
- Vlasic – Benning12:13
xG 0.31–0.43 (42%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).