Thu, Dec 15, 2022·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 010 | 212 | 217 | 439 |
| FLA | 111 | 018 | 15 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:30FLARyan LombergAssists: Eric Staal, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 4:17PITKris LetangSHAssists: Bryan Rust, Ryan Poehling · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 12:42PITJake GuentzelPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
- P3 8:05PITEvgeni MalkinPPGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Rickard Rakell · Deflected, 0.14 xG3–1
- P3 10:14FLASam ReinhartAssists: Carter Verhaeghe · Slap, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 18:42PITJake GuentzelENAssists: Sidney Crosby, Brock McGinn · Wrist, 0.64 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:20FLAEric Staal: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P2 3:21PITJan Rutta: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:52FLACarter Verhaeghe: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:04PITJan Rutta: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:51FLAAaron Ekblad: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 11:57PITDanton Heinen: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rakell – Guentzel14:12
xG 1.12–0.80 (58%)attempts 18–13goals 0–1
- Archibald – Blueger – Poehling7:35
xG 0.31–0.18 (64%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Malkin – Rust – Heinen9:23
xG 0.43–0.35 (55%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Carter – Rust – Heinen2:03
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Pettersson19:16
xG 1.55–0.43 (78%)attempts 21–12goals 0–0
- Ruhwedel – Joseph11:26
xG 0.39–0.73 (35%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Rutta13:09
xG 0.60–1.11 (35%)attempts 12–21goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart13:03
xG 0.88–0.60 (59%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Dalpe – Bennett – Luostarinen10:13
xG 0.53–0.37 (58%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Staal – Heponiemi – Denisenko3:27
xG 0.07–0.11 (39%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Cousins – Lomberg11:28
xG 0.71–0.93 (43%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Montour2:10
xG 0.37–0.01 (99%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Forsling12:59
xG 0.76–0.57 (57%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Staal – Kiersted3:07
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).